The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 3
Last Week: 14-2
Season: 24-8
Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Friday 12.20pm NZT
If there was one overriding theme of week two... it was the injuries. Even as some pretty entertaining early games were unfolding the tally of injuries was starting to overshadow things. Some star players too, it was rough. A few teams have had their entire season plans blown up. Not really what anyone wants to see. Injuries do happen and in a weird time like this they’ll probably be a little heavier than usual – hence the alterations to the injured reserve rules – but this is over the top...
Saquon Barkley is out for the season, which removes the best player from the New York Giants roster and while they weren’t gonna go anywhere anyway an injury like this to his ACL is concerning well beyond the realms of 2020. The NYG rebuild just got slapped with a big delay.
Nick Bosa was the Defensive ROY last year and a key part of that NFC Championship roster... but an ACL tear for him drastically alters the Niners’ hopes of going one better this time around. With Solomon Thomas also hurt and DeForest Buckner having left in free agency that’s a big worry for their defensive line, which was so important in their success in 2019.
Christian McCaffrey is arguably the most crucial non-QB to any singular team’s offence but a high ankle spain will keep him out for several weeks now. The Panthers will get him back potentially as quickly as a month but dunno that this is a team good enough to overcome a run of losses if they can’t rally with CMC out, having already started 0-2.
Drew Lock, fair play to the dude, was looking like a steady hand for the Broncos which is all they really need with a defence like theirs. Picking up where he left off in a nice stretch late last year. But that defence has already lost Vonn Miller while Lock will now miss 2-6 weeks with a shoulder knock and it’s the same as with the Panthers... are they good enough to survive in the interim? They need to see him out there for extended reps to judge if he’s the guy they wanna invest in at quarterback. Oh and his best receiver, Courtland Sutton, also just did an ACL.
Jimmy Garropolo did his ankle and missed the second half against the Jets. The Niners still won easy and Jimmy G should be fine for this week... though he hasn’t played great yet and with injuries around him on this roster the pressure is more on him than ever to carry them to glory.
Davante Adams has a hamstring worry. It might be bad, it might not. Either way it’s not what Aaron Rodgers wants to hear when he’s playing so damn well... Adams is by far his best option in the passing game. I suspect him missing the end of the Lions game was only precautionary though.
Not to mention a bollocks load of other knocks and niggles. I think we’re talking pure bad luck more than anything else – there are always injuries so applying the covid stuff or the lack of preseason to this (Saquon Barkley would not have been playing much preseason even if they had a full four game schedule) feels like a stretch. It was just one of those weeks, unfortunately.
Right now for TNF this week we’ve got a predictably rubbish Miami Dolphins team who actually gave the Bills a decent crack last week but didn’t quite have the playmaking to get over the line. Literally in the case of a fourth down turnover at the 1yd line – Fitzy can move the ball but damn, dude. It’s annoying because they’ve done some cool things with that roster yet they’re in pause mode until Tua Tagovailoa is deemed ready to go. They’ve not really got any need to rush him though. This is a transitional season.
Compare that to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are very unpredictably good. They lost to Tennessee last week but it was another impressive outing for Gardner Minshew as he competes for his long-term job security. A couple turnovers cost him but he’s giving a team that many thought were designed to tank... he’s giving them a chance.
Also...
Wildcard’s Pick: Jags by 3 in a high-scorer
Chicago Bears (2-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Hahahahaha. What were they thinking!? Dive on the son of a bitch, don’t just watch it dribble over the line for Dallas to swamp on it. There’s that ten yard buffer where only the Falcons can play at the ball and all they have to do is gather it cleanly and the play is dead, the game is over, the Falcons recover to 1-1 with a quality win in which they led the majority of the way. But no, that would be too simple for the Atlanta Falcons. As a Cowboys fan... I can only laugh in grateful amusement.
Having said that, this is still a decent Falcons team despite the 0-2 hole they find themselves in. Their defence is not fantastic but they were really aggressive in punching those balls out in the first quarter as Dallas fumbled four times. They’re getting useful contributions from Todd Gurley who should get better as he settles in while Matt Ryan looks excellent. Calvin Ridley’s giving them a legit second option at wideout too... in two games Ridley has nine catches for 130 yards with 2 TDs against Seattle and seven catches for 109 yards and 2 TDs against Dallas. Superb.
And here they face a Chicago team that’s feeling the opposite way with two wins outta two... two wins (against the Lions and Giants) which could very easily have been losses. Barely held on both times. Fair play to Mitch Trubisky who is well and truly keeping Nick Foles quiet on the bench right now but the Falcons are desperate here. They have the Packers next week too. This is a must-win and teams don’t tend to drastically choke consecutive games. There’s usually a bit of a fire-up that follows a loss like that.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 10
Los Angeles Rams (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Here ya go, I said I was gonna have a yarn about crowd noise. It’s still too early to say if some teams are struggling more than others, if crowd noise helps the home team like it’s intended too, if it’s even worth bothering at all... I prefer a bit of fake crowd atmosphere on the telly broadcast to be fair but they do have to keep it subtle or it gets distracting. In an empty stadium it’s harder to judge without being there... but I get the feeling it must be pretty eerie. Most players and coaches don’t seem to care. Kyle Shanahan on the other hand called it “human torture”.
One of the things they’re doing in the NFL is trying to recreate the contextual crowd noise by using sounds from appropriate fans at appropriate times... so a long completion by Josh Allen will cue bottled crowd noise created from previous times that a Bills quarterback has thrown a deep completion at home, that kinda thing (not too many examples of that in the tank from Josh Allen... but tell ya what he’s looked sharp so far).
It gets awkward if you pay attention to it because the timing is usually off... that’s what I mean about the subtlety. But that’s just the top layer, there’s also an audio bed supplied by the NFL which is a constant loop of crowd muttering and shuffling to sit in the background which they have to ensure is playing whenever the play clock happens to be running. Which is more difficult to create than you’d think as you’ve gotta edit out all the loud speaker announcements and the music and anything else inauthentic.
The NFL has put a limit on that buffer crowd noise though, it’s not allowed to exceed 70 decibels which is about as loud as a vacuum cleaner so not insubstantial but unless you’re standing right next to the speakers then also not so loud you can’t talk over it... which has led to a theory that teams are struggling with defending hard counts, as the quarterback calls are that much more audible now. Also, there was a rumour that Carson Wentz and the Eagles were getting booed by a fake crowd in week one... turns out that wasn’t true but it makes for a decent joke.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 2
Washington Football Team (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 9
Tennessee Titans (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Kirk Cousins against the Colts in week two:
11/26 COMP | 113 YDS | 0 TD | 3 INT | -0.85 AY/A | 15.9 RATE
Not sure I’ve ever seen a negative adjusted yards per attempt stat before. Not from a former Pro Bowler in a completed game. Kirk Cousins, and let me put this in plain English for you, he was absolute trash in that game. This Vikings team cannot win when he’s playing like that... although remember he had a similarly awful week two performance last year too and responded with an excellent run of performances for a couple months.
Some people get confused by how Cousins, who technically looks like a really good quarterback, he definitely makes throws befitting of a really good quarterback, can have such abysmal games like this and then bounce back strong and then bottle it in the big games but then rally just often enough to keep the wolves at bay... I don’t think it’s complicated. I think he’s just dumb. Like, mentally not the sharpest crayon in the crayola box. Not picking on the dude, but he’s quite religious, he’s a well-off white American, and he’s an NFL player – three aspects of society where critical thinking is not really encouraged/necessary. Granted, he’s a quarterback which is the one area of the gridiron field where being able to improvise is kinda important... but the wider NFL culture is very much a Do Your Job kinda thing, listen to the coach and all that. Segmented roles. Cousins is a bit dumb and that can be a burden when things go wrong and he doesn’t know how to fix them... it’s also probably got a lot to do with why he’s as resilient as he is. Would not be shocked if he lights it up against Tennessee.
By the way, This is Minnesota’s first 0-2 start under Mike Zimmer.
But it could be 0-3 regardless of all that because this Titans team... woah boy. Basically they’ve picked up where they left off in 2019, proving they weren’t just a one season wonder. Ryan Tannehill has looked really good, while Derrick Henry is barnstorming all over the show. 200 rush yards through two games... he leads the league in carries so a bit of a worry about his workload when he’s on pace for 448 rush attempts in 2020 after two weeks... but so far so good (the Titans are 9-0 when Henry gets 25+ carries, including postseason). Jadeveon Clowney is making plays on the defensive side. AJ Brown is doing the same on the offensive side. Mike Vrabel has crafted this really tough unit but they’re also stacked with speed... power and speed is a pretty useful combination in 2020. And then there’s a sneakier hero, one of my emerging faves Jonnu Smith...
Just quietly, the Vikings’ defence has been lit up twice already, giving up 150+ rush yards to both the Packers and Colts (not really teams you’d pick as top tier rushers) which is fifth worst in the league while their first downs allowed rank third worst, total yardage fourth worst, and total points allowed second worst. It ain’t what it once was which puts even more expectation on Kirk Cousins and... refer to the earlier paragraph.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3... but it was a tricky one to pick
Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) at New England Patriots (1-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
But wait it gets better, here’s Billy on his zoom conference later in the week turning up looking like he accidentally hit video call instead of audio call and doesn’t realise we can see he’s only just woken up and hasn’t gotten dressed yet.
I saw an ad with him in during the Redzone coverage last week actually, selling Subway or something and in it he rips a dude’s sleeve’s off his suit, keeping up the (un)fashionable reputation. But the ad’s weird because he smiles in it. Made me think it must be an actor or something, an impersonator. And not a good one. But nah Bill Belichick works too hard at looking like he doesn’t work hard at all with these things. We can see through the myth, it’s a well-crafted persona meant to imply that football is the only thing he has time to worry about. I’m still waiting to see who out of Belichick and Cam Newton cracks first on the fancy dress front.
Now, if you wanna see a man who lives his commitment to the aesthetic, check out Billy’s son Steve Belichick and that righteous mullet he’s rocking these days...
I don’t know where those two would be at it if weren’t for football but I’m not sure the trailer industry has ever recovered from their loss.
As for the other side of this equation... how hard is it to wear a mask, Gruden? Seriously.
Cam Newton was FANTASTIC against the Seahawks. He’s playing for barely a million dollars this season, earning less than most backups. Newton only signed with the Pats late in free agency and already looks comfortable in that system. Every team with a subpar quarterbacks right now is a coward for not signing Cam when they had the chance, there’s really no excuse.
Wildcard’s Pick: Pats by 3
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Just in case things weren’t already upsetting enough for the Niners...
I get the feeling you’ll hear a whole lot about week two injuries on this broadcast. Saquon Barkley and Nick Bosa leading the way. At least the Niners know that Jimmy G can play through his sore ankle in the meantime and to be honest they couldn’t hardly ask for a simpler matchup the week after a franchise-rattling run of knocks. And while Nick Bosa is out, George Kittle sounds like he’s a good chance to return so that’s gonna help Garoppolo immensely. Curious to see they’ve signed Ziggy Ansah as their Bosa replacement, we’ll see what he can do on short practice too. Generally there’s a good reason why ex-stars like him are off any roster at this time of the season.
There aren’t any guarantees in the NFL and we’ve already seen Danny Jones do some funky things with the G-Men but this should be an easy one if the Niners execute like they usually do. Even with their quarterback, running back, and best defensive player all injured during the last game they still cruised past a Jets team that... hmm I was gonna say is better than the Giants but I dunno about that. The Giants at least have some direction to their franchise, the Jets have more immediate talent but they’re a mess. Either way New York NFL ain’t looking flash in the short term.
Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 14
Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Surely the Eagles get up for this one. Surely.
Wildcard’s Pick: Philly by 5
Houston Texans (0-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Way back in 1927 a team called the Duluth Eskimos fielded a team that included brothers Bill, Cobb, and Joe Rooney all in the same game. Apparently the Eskimos (long tradition of racially sketchy nicknames in the NFL, aye?) were one of the first teams to use a logo... but they went defunct at the end of that ‘27 season. Anyway the point being that it would be more than 90 years before another trio of brothers featured in the same NFL game and that was last year when Tremaine, Terrell, and Trey Edmunds all played as the Bills faced the Steelers. Pretty amazing feat, that.
And it’s relevant here because it’s about to happen again. 92 years between instances and then it happens again the very next season and you can bet you’ll hear all about it because the brothers in question, of course, are the Watt brothers. JJ for the Texans and TJ and Derek for the Steelers. All of which has kinda blown my mind.
Don’t like picking Houston to lose a third in a row but seriously who did this draw? Their losses have come to the Chiefs and Ravens, the two most recent MVPs as their quarterbacks. Now they face the Steelers who are looking nice and rejuvenated with a defence that’s gonna give anyone trouble and... the Texans just don’t have the depth at the moment. Too many holes in too many areas.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 7
New York Jets (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Monday 9.05am NZT
The Jets allowed a successful third & 31 play against a team whose starting quarterback and running back were both off the field. Where is the hope?
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 11
Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)
Monday 9.05am NZT
Usually I have to do a little mental gymnastics to get my Simpsons references into this thing but the Chargers really wanna make it easy for me...
A more serious ramification of this being that Tyrod Taylor has been advised to sit out “indefinitely” in the meantime, which means Shoeless Justin Herbert will get his second NFL start in this game.
Really liked what I saw from Herbert on debut. He’s built like an ox, at one point he got mashed by a defensive player and got immediately back up on his feet while the linebacker needed treatment. This from a rookie quarterback, dude. He’s got big size, he can move pretty well... and he chucked a casual 311 passing yards with two scores on debut. At one point I was thinking for sure this guy must be the better option for this team (and I say this as a Tyrod defender)... then he literally threw an interception the very next play after that thought crossed my mind. Even still, he clearly gave the Chargers a fresh dose of enthusiasm. Not that his coach was so easy to please...
Mate, come on. Bit harsh for his first game in the NFL, surely?
Meanwhile I was already starting to think the Panthers were pretty bad and then Christian McCaffrey got injured. One of the highest usage rate dudes in the league (outside the QB position) and now they’ll have to shake up their whole offensive outlook without him. Rather large concern, that. Teddy Bridgewater is not really the style of quarterback to transcend an offence in these situations, don’t see much of a high ceiling there for them unless Mike Davis goes ballistic in McCaffrey’s absence.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Denver Broncos (0-2)
Monday 9.25am NZT
BORT!
In fairness, Bortles won games with the Jags back in the day when they had a pretty similar kinda team to what this Broncos lot is trying to achieve. Ruthless defence and then chuck in a quarterback who can make just enough big plays to get them over the line. Unfortunately injuries mean they’re not gonna get there regardless of who they sign. A pity for Drew Lock too, I was starting to warm to him. Not sure how that team record is gonna look when he gets back.
Dunno what was up here either. For one thing his face is the same colour as the seats...
Wildcard’s Pick: Tompa Bay by 8
Detroit Lions (0-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
Monday 9.25am NZT
The Detroit Lions lost nine games in a row to finish last season and have lost two in a row to start this one. That’s an 11 game losing streak. They’re 1-14 in their last fifteen games. Nine of those defeats have come by eight points or less. And it seems like they blow a double digit lead every week. Okay, Matt Stafford was injured for a lot of that run last season but that’s a bit of a monkey to get off your back. They have like no pass rush. They can’t stop the run either. Look what they’re doing to poor Jeff Daniels!
Wildcard’s Pick: Cards by 6
Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Monday 9.25am NZT
I’m still shocked at that win. I don’t even have the words.
Russell Wilson on the other hand, I could chat that bloke all day he’s been incredible. He was incredible last season too but now he’s really getting to cook, so to speak, and although it’s way too early to be talking about MVP at this rate he’s gonna be the early favourite in a month or so when we get to that point.
Week 1 vs ATL: 31/35 COMP | 322 YDS | 4 TD | 0 INT | 11.49 AY/A | 143.1 RATE
Week 2 vs NWE: 21/28 COMP | 288 YDS | 5 TD | 1 INT | 12.25 AY/A | 132.1 RATE
9 touchdown passes and only 11 incompletions (including three dropped passes and three throwaways under pressure). Incredible. Against two pretty good teams too. Pete Carroll said he’s “at his very best so far”. Bill Belichick called him “underrated”. He’s on a legendary buzz right now.
As for DK Metcalf, that fella went out there and went toe to toe with Stephon Gilmore who is the reigning DPOY and that is not something that can be slept on whatsoever. He’s up against a Dallas secondary who combined don’t add up to Gilmore’s level this week as well. Either Dallas gets some mad pressure on Wilson or they get lucky with Seattle reverting to more of a rushing balance or... let’s just say that win over the Falcons was massive for a couple reasons. Dallas should go 5-1 or better in their division though so they can afford to drop a couple others along the way. Some of the defensive and O-Line injuries are a concern. I dunno. But getting that miracle ATL win is the sort of thing that can inject a dose of enthusiasm that lasts all season, giving this team the confidence to go to battle with anyone. This game has some serious shootout potential about it, could be a thriller.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 3 but I hope I’m wrong
Green Bay Packers (2-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-1)
Monday 1.20pm NZT
The Saints have a dude in their secondary called Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. A fourth round pick in 2019, who made the All-Rookie team last season as a safety. A very good player, no doubt about it. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who was born Chauncey Gardner Jr. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson who last month claimed on Insta that he was gonna change his name to Ceedy Deuce (although the commentators are still calling him Chauncey Gardner-Johnson). The Johnson bit he added to his name to pay tribute to his step-father, who helped raise him since he was a kid... though what stuck with me when I heard his name on the broadcast on MNF was the Chauncey Gardner part... which last year would have meant nothing to me because I hadn’t seen the film Being There.
Being There (1979), directed by the great Hal Ashby towards the end of his golden run. Peter Sellers plays a simplistic fellow who, in a Forrest Gump before Forrest Gump kinda way, accidentally ingratiates himself into the Washington political scene where his gentle innocent aphorisms of advice cause a stir of inspiration and he’s mistaken for a philosophical genius... which he kinda is, just not in the way that they think he is. It’s a film about the wonders of keeping an uncluttered mind, taking things as they come, with Ashby’s hippie bonafides coming through strong with the spiritual mindfulness on offer. And what’s Sellers’ character’s name? Chance. And he’s a gardener. But he’s misheard and misnamed as “Chauncey Gardiner” by the Washington politicos.
Unsurprisingly that name coincidence is just a fluke... although in the spirit of the movie there are no flukes on a cosmic level... and as of the 2019 Draft Combine CGJ claimed he’d never actually seen the film, although he reckons he’s been asked about it “one thousand, four hundred and fifty-seven times”. He promised to watch it on the plane back home. Which I doubt he did but still it’s pretty cool. Love that film.
Rightio, nothing much to add about a Green Bay team that has looked pretty great so far. The Saints though... they’ve got some issues. Gotta say I was wrong about them gliding through the Michael Thomas absence because without him suddenly Drew Brees was exposed. These first two weeks he’s averaging 4.82 yards through the air per throw which is his lowest ever across two games as a Saint and the lowest by anyone since 2009 (Brett Favre, incredibly). It’s a concern. This is a guy who used to eat up 5000 yard seasons for breakfast and now he barely wants to throw it ten yards let alone giving his dudes time to get open downfield. Very weird. It’s not like he’s missing the long throws, he’s not even attempting them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 6
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
Tuesday 1.15pm NZT
We come to the game of the round, the battle of the last two MVPs, quite possibly the two most exciting teams to watch in the entire league let alone two of the very top Super Bowl favourites... but you already know about how Lamar Jackson is untouchable even under pressure or how Patrick Mahomes is incapable of letting a fourth quarter deficit go unrecovered. I wanna shift the focus to two similarly elite fellas in their field of expertise...
Like, how about Butker last week? Down by three at the death and he nails a field goal from 30 yards to take us to overtime. Then we get to extras where KCC line up for a potential 53 yarder to win the match and Butker again drills it, no dramas, only there’s a whistle and a flag. False start, five yard penalty. Move it back to 58 yards and they line up for the kick again anyway which he bangs right down the middle except the Chargers had called a timeout to try and ice him. No worries, the next one counts and he lifts that one good for the victory. Basically, he smashed three straight 50+ yarders for the win (even if only one counted). And this week he takes on possibly the greatest kicker of all time.
Butker has a few too many missed PATs on his resume, although he does have better range than Tucker. But yeah nah I’m still taking Tucker’s long term automatic accuracy for sure. They’re currently the only two kickers in NFL history with a FG% over 90% for their entire careers... as it stands.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 3
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