A lot of conversation about the FA Cup these days tends to be around the idea that it isn’t held in the same regard that it once was. Certainly the European Cup casts a long shadow as far as the big clubs are concerned but it’d be a shocker if Matt Busby or Bob Paisley or Brian Clough ever said they’d trade their continental glory for an extra waltz up the Wembley stairs and a handshake with a royal.

Most likely football’s oldest trophy is exactly what it’s been for the last 50 years. Maybe if you go back beyond that to the days of Stanley Matthews then things will have been different but nobody making that argument is going back that far.

This latest Final will be the tenth since the New Wembley opened. Every one of those finals has included at least one traditional powerhouse team with the exception of that Portsmouth vs Cardiff one in 2008. Often there’s a clear underdog but it’s pretty rare that they win – the exception being Wigan in 2013, as they famously toppled Manchester City in a classic upset. But aside from them and Pompey, the last 20 FA Cups have all otherwise been won by Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea or Liverpool… and you can’t tell Steven Gerrard that his stunning equaliser in extra time in 2006 against West Ham didn’t matter. Or John Terry after Chelsea won four in six years. Or Arsene Wenger whose back to back medals from the last two FA Cups finally rewarded his frustrated fans with silverware. Nor Joe Hart, Vincent Kompany and Roberto Mancini as their triumph in 2011 meant the first major trophy of the Abu Dhabi United Group era and the club’s first in 35 years.

Nor would Louis Van Gaal or Alan Pardew, in a million years, turn down this chance to lift that fabled bit of metalwork this weekend.

The Road to the Final

Crystal Palace

Palace may not have had the best second half to the league season – in fact it was rather awful. They began 2016 with five straight Premier League defeats and only won two of their last 21 games in that comp. but while that was all falling apart they were flying in the FA Cup. It started with a 2-1 win away to Southampton, thanks to a 68th minute Wilfried Zaha winner. Zaha will be one of the big narratives of this final as he was the final ever signing by Sir Alex Ferguson at Man United only to flop pretty hard under David Moyes – who never really trusted him – and he was back at Palace, initially on loan and then permanently, after only four competitive matches. There were rumours he had a thing with Moyes’ daughter but that’s best filed under ‘unsubstantiated’.

Anyway, they advanced to host Stoke in the fourth round. Again, a Wilf Zaha goal was the difference as Palace scored early and held out for a 1-0 win. Next up was Spurs and this was right around the time that Tottenham were talking up their chances at winning the Premier League. They were also chugging away in the Europa League and the fixture list was clogging up. Spurs named a strong team but they rested Toby Alderweireld and Christian Eriksen. Dele Alli managed to hit both posts with one shot although Martin Kelly was the only one to find the net and the Eagles advanced. Crucially, this was also Yannick Bolasie’s first appearance (off the bench) in months after an injury that pretty much coincided with Palace’s drop in league form. Probably no coincidence, actually.

Drawing Championship side Reading in the quarters, CPY must have fancied themselves but it wasn’t until the 86th minute that they were able to find a way through, Jake Cooper sent off for (allegedly) dragging down Bolasie, allowing Yohan Cabaye to convert from the spot. Frazier Campbell added another in injury time for a 2-0 win. Palace to their first FA Cup semis in 21 years.

It was there that they met Watford, who’d just knocked out Arsenal. Yet Watford were suffering an equally terrible 2016 (aside from Cup form) and within a month of losing here their manager, Quique Sanchez Flores, would be told his job would not be waiting for him next season. Bolasie opened the scoring early on before Troy Deeney equalised after half time. But a winner from Connor Wickham just after the hour mark was the difference in a game that few would argue they deserved to win. A powerful defensive performance and a testing show on attack saw the Eagles have the best of the game with the exception of a tough period after the break.

Manchester United

Meanwhile Manchester United got a nice and easy run through the first couple ties – which soon levelled itself out in the latter rounds. For them the first step was an insomnia-curing 1-0 win over Sheffield United in which they had only two shots on target against a team multiple divisions below them and one of those was Wayne Rooney’s injury time penalty after Memphis had been fouled by Dean Hammond. For United, there were no crazy swings in form. Their whole season mostly took the same course to where they’d win in boring fashion, win in boring fashion, win in more promising fashion and then lose disastrously. Same formula, lather-rinse-repeat. But their next two FA Cup games were relatively routine wins over Derby (3-1, goals to Rooney, Daley Blind and Juan Mata) and Shrewsbury (3-0, goals to Chris Smalling, Juan Mata and Jesse Lingard).

That took them into the quarters where they finally drew a Premier League side and it was a tough one. West Ham gave them plenty of trouble but while it looked like they would withstand all that, Dimitri Payet whipped in a free kick among the best this competition has ever seen. An incredible goal to give the Hammers the lead at Old Trafford. However United did manage a reply and it came through a late Anthony Martial goal. That meant for a replay at Upton Park and in that game, United struck first thanks to a fine goal from teenage striker Marcus Rashford. Marouane Fellaini doubled the lead before James Tomkins pulled one back. WHU threatened a levelled to take it into extra time but it didn’t happen.

After Fellaini struck first at Wembley against Everton, Man Utd seemed to be in control. However the Toffees then proceeded to play them off the park in the second half. If it wasn’t for David De Gea saving a penalty from Romelu Lukaku then it could have been a rampage but Everton would have to wait until there were just 15 minutes left before Chris Smalling turned one into his own net to tie things up. That took a little steam from them and right as it looked like we’d be off to extra time, Anthony Martial and Ander Herrera linked up for a beautiful injury time winner.

1990

These two teams have met before in an FA Cup Final. Back in the 1989-90 season, and 26 years later there are a few little strands tying these two games together. Three games, actually. That 1990 final ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw that saw doubles for Ian Wright and Mark Hughes – Hughes’ second goal came with seven minutes of extra time remaining to force a replay. Of course, the man known as Sparky is now manager of Stoke City, who Crystal Palace beat on their way to this final. Also playing that day was an English midfielder for Palace by the name of Alan Pardew.

But despite Pardew taking the Eagles back to this grand stage as boss this time (he scored the winner against Liverpool in the semis), it will be the Man United manager that gets the most attention, just as it was back in 1990. Louis Van Gaal’s job has been under constant conjecture throughout the season, especially since Jose Mourinho’s not so subtle campaigning began for this gig. It had been suggested that the reason LVG held on was that a few notable names on the MUFC board really didn’t fancy Mourinho in the job. Soon enough the word, officially ratified or unofficially proclaimed we don’t know, was that Van Gaal would need to finish fourth and win this tournament to save his contract. The Red Devils only managed fifth, West Ham taking revenge on them for their FA Cup win with a 3-2 comeback victory in their second to last league game that took Champions League qualification out of their hands. Perhaps winning this trophy will be enough, perhaps winning it will only get him fired with a little more sympathy. Either way, if he doesn’t win then it’s very unlikely that the Dutch philosopher will be back for another game.

Such was the case for a 48 year old Scotsman in the Man United dugout back in 1990, a bloke by the name of Alex Ferguson. Still without a trophy in his time with the club, it has often been said that had he lost the FA Cup Final replay then he’d have been out on the streets. Fergie denied this and the club backed him up on that point bit regardless the speculation was high. Instead a 59th minute goal to Lee Martin won him his first bit of silverware and paved the way for twenty years of dominance to follow.

Manchester United have not won a trophy since Ferguson retired. Crystal Palace doesn’t have one since the 1993-94 First Division (unless you count the Championship Playoffs or the Surrey Senior Cup). United are supposed to win trophies though, those are the expectations and this one won’t save the disappointment of missing the Champions League but blowing this game too and things would be in crisis. Even just in the context of the FA Cup, United haven’t won this since 2004 when they beat Millwall 3-0 with goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Ruud Van Nistelrooy (2). Not a single player remains from that team, meaning that the likes of Wayne Rooney and Michael Carrick have never won one. Both were a part of the 2007 starting XI that was beaten by Chelsea in extra time, while Rooney also played in 2005 when they lost on penalties to Arsenal. Players like Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra never won one either. For a club that up until two years ago held the most ever FA Cup wins, it has been a long time between drinks.

Alan Pardew is playing for his first ever trophy as a manager, though he was in charge of the West Ham team that lost in 2006 to Liverpool. You wouldn’t anticipate too many previous FA Cup winners in the Crystal Palace squad but it’d probably cause a few double takes if you went around pointing out that they have just as many winners’ medals in their squad as Manchester United do. The only player in the United squad to have won before is Juan Mata, who was there when Chelsea won their latest one in 2012. Marouane Fellaini also has a runners-up medal from Everton’s 2-1 loss to Chelsea in 2009.

Yet in the Crystal Palace squad you also have a winners’ medal. Not from Emmanuel Adebayor, who managed to miss both Arsenal and Manchester City crownings by less than a year. Likewise Martin Kelly was an unused sub when Liverpool lost to Chelsea in 2012 (Juan Mata’s year). Joe Ledley played for Cardiff when they lost 1-0 to Portsmouth in 2008, but James McArthur was luckier, he played the full game in Wigan’s famous win over Man City three years ago.

Likely Starting XIs

(Click to enlarge)

There’s obviously lots of guessing here but with Fellaini playing surprisingly decent roles in the last two rounds and he now returned from suspension, there’s a feeling that he’ll start here to add some real physicality against a well-structured team. Jesse Lingard would be unlucky to sit on the bench in this case but that might be the case because Juan Mata offers more nous and creativity while Martial and Rashford are undroppable on current form. Same goes for Wayne Rooney, believe it or not, though he could swap with Fellaini, meaning if Morgan Schneiderlin is fit he’ll probably be on the bench with Ander Herrera and Memphis Depay.

Seeing as Luke Shaw and Matteo Darmian are injured, Valencia should resume his spot at right back but on the left it’s tough to say. CBJ is very young and very raw, prone to the odd mistake but yet it may be that Van Gaal still trusts him more than Marcos Rojo, who has the unwanted habit of diving into silly challenges. Set pieces will be Palace’s number one attacking route… although number two will be the pace and guile of Zaha (if fit) and Bolasie. Sako too if he’s starting or coming off the bench. Given the possible weakness at full back for MUFC and their lack of height and strength in the air, Palace should fancy their chances by those two routes. Hence why Fellaini probably has to be there, despite his usual infuriating presence (often down to how he’s been selected by LVG, to be fair). Without him United were bullied by West Ham the other day. With him they might have held on to make the Champions League. Wow, of all the players to be the difference…

The rest of United’s team are simple, the back three pick themselves and Michael Carrick has clearly been their best midfielder all season despite a down year by his recent standards. It could be his last game for Man Utd given his contract is up in a month and there’s no extension on the way so far (though John Terry will say he isn’t trying hard enough).

Palace were pumped 4-1 by Southampton in their last game but that was with a number of changes so you can bet that Scott Dann, Yannick Bolasie, Yohan Cabaye and Wayne Hennessey will be starting here based on their restings. Joe Ledley is definitely out, while Wickham, Zaha and Cabaye are all doubtful but will probably play.

Dann and Delaney have proved a fine defensive pairing all season. Even as their team has struggled, those two have mostly been decent and you can expect them to play deep and compact – as teams tend to do against Man United, given how poor they are at breaking teams down without room to run. Ward and Souare make for the rest of a predictable backline. In the midfield there is a toss-up between Mile Jedinak and James McArthur, though the ex-Wigan lad should have the jump with everyone fit. Yohan Cabaye is a no-doubter given his international quality.

Striker has been a major problem for Palace all season, though Wickham has had the most success while he’s been able to stay on the park. Dwight Gayle and Emmanuel Adebayor are the alternatives if needs require. Wickham doesn’t offer the same pace as those two but he’s a proper physical battler and Pards may see that as the best way to disrupt the Blind/Smalling partnership. Bakary Sako is the most likely to play off the bench of the four Palace playmakers.

The bigger confusion is how they’ll be arranged. Look for Bolasie to play more centrally where his speed can really worry the more measured midfield approaches of Rooney and Carrick while Zaha will be a factor whichever flank he ends up on. Given Puncheon prefers the right, that’ll probably take precedence. Puncheon is a clever passer who can link all these guys together, playing him wider won’t really matter as he can drift just as Juan Mata does. In a lot of ways these two teams are quite similar. Zaha, though, either he’s gonna be running directly at a sketchy left back or he’ll be using that pace to hit on the counter in behind Antonio Valencia, who tends to get pretty far forward (he’s no longer a winger as people say, he’s a fullback, but as a converted one certain habits remain). Either he drags back a valuable attacking option for United (having an overlapping fullback means Mata doesn’t have to stay wide and can pull strings elsewhere) or he takes advantage of the space in behind there.

Previous Meetings

Twice these two met in the Premier League this season, each game offering a blueprint to one of the teams as to how they’ll wanna play. A month ago United beat Palace 2-0 at Old Trafford. The Eagles were very poor that day but Man Utd, still a big chance at Champions League then, went and produced a clinical, expressive display. The movement was up, the tempo of the game was up and if it weren’t for Julian Speroni in goal then it could have been several more goals. Instead an early Delaney own goal deflated the visitors while Anthony Martial gave Martin Kelly absolute fits running in from the left side. Joel Ward will be a more reliable option at right back, that game came right before the FA Cup semi-finals so Pardew made a number of changes. Scott Dann didn’t play there, neither did Bolasie or Puncheon.

Back in October, however, Palace were basically at full strength when they held Man Utd to a 0-0 draw at home. It was the usual early season United: lots of possession and nothing to show for it – that result marked their third consecutive scoreless draw. Again that day Martin Kelly was monstered by Martial, eventually swapped to the other flank to avoid a second yellow. He was dangerous but United still never really looked like doing much and Rooney was slack up front. Similar for Palace with Bolasie and Zaha causing all sorts of problems but De Gea, Smalling and Blind dealing with all of them as Dwight Gayle did nothing much in return. In truth, if Gayle or one of a few teammates had been better at finishing that day then the Eagles may well have won that one. Palace’s tactics there will mirror those in the Cup final, as they sat deep and frustrated, knowing that they could counter strongly and so long as they didn’t make positional errors, they could keep United going sideways.

United are a better team now than they were then, better balanced now that Martial and Rashford have settled and improved. They still have those sloppy games where they don’t try score but are better at flicking the switch these days and it’s not like they ought to lack for motivation in an FA Cup Final. Coupled with the fact that the ball will be in their court, so to speak, against a more defensive side and there won’t be any excuses. But should Palace manage to keep Martial and Mata quiet… then the options could open up at the other end, especially in the second half when the weight of expectation rises. Manchester United are the heavy favourites but this is still the FA Cup.