Conclusions from the Conclusion of the Premier League Season

Oh Spurs, where did it ever go wrong? How could such a promising season come to this, with the manager apologising for the disgraces that you’ve lumped upon your families.

“First of all, I would like to apologise to our fans – our team was terrible for them. To our families too, I apologise. It’s difficult to go back to see your kids, your wife, your girlfriends, your dad – this wasn’t the team that played all season. It’s my worst day as a manager.”

I’m not sure that this changes my stance that Spurs ought to be favourites for next season’s title, but goddamn it was disastrous. From challenging to the title a month ago to slipping behind Arsenal on the final day of the season, smashed 5-1 by a Newcastle team already relegated. It’s been 66 years since a relegated team scored five goals in their final game but it was worse than that. They were only 2-1 up when Aleksander Mitrovic was sent off. People used the Chelsea game as an indication of some Spursy boilover and that looks pretty clear in hindsight. They gave up after that. A team defined by their total effort and team mentality just collapsed.

We can debate whether the players care so much about second or third, about finishing above Arsenal or not. The fans though, they certainly do. And I’d bet that Arsenal are taking it, a supposed decline year and they still finish above their closest rivals in their best season in ages. Although with 70 points, Tottenham aren't that much better than their usual 5/6 place finishes and two points behind the fifth place of 2012-13 – Gareth Bale’s last season. That shouldn’t be taken too hard, given they took only two points from their last four games. It was brutal having to play catchup to Leicester with a bunch of Monday games and that clearly drained them. For the majority of the season, however, they were playing title-winning football and that should be the thing they remember most, the thing they try grow from. Unfortunately Spursiness is still a problem for them but then don't overlook how young this team is either.

Moving forward, it’s clear what Spurs need to do. They have a squad that is a few players short of being where they need to be and that’s gotta be the only focus now that Pochettino has re-signed. They were lucky not to have to deal with any Harry Kane absences in 2015-16 which covered for the fact that they look scarce behind him. They weren’t so lucky when it came to Dele Alli and Mousa Dembele’s late suspensions and it was without those two workhorses that they crumbled. Ryan Mason started eight games in the Premier League this season… Spurs won only one of them (1-0 vs Sunderland – Mason scored the winner). Not quite as bad as Jack Grealish’s record of losing every game he was involved in for Aston Villa this term but not exactly good either. St Totteringham’s Day arrived belatedly this year but it arrived all the same. Still, this is a sustainable team on the rise. No panic.

Let’s not forget that Harry Kane still won the Golden Boot, too.

One wonders on the other hand how those Gunners might have fared with a fit Santi Cazorla. Not buying an outfield played in the summer sure backfired as Arsenal looked short in the midfield and crap up the top for long stretches. The thing with them is… it’s never as bad as it sounds. I mean, after all this they still finished second, granted in a year where the traditional big boys were all kinda rubbish but still. The defence is a worry, as is their depth of squad but bring in a young, EPL-ready replacement for Mikel Arteta and that’ll change. The Theo Walcott gamble didn’t work, it might be best for all if he moved on to where he can play more regularly, but the continued rise of Hector Bellerin and the resurgence of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil holds the Gunners in a fine place. Funny how injuries always seem to be the problem though.

Is there anything new to say on Leicester City? Not really. They’re the Premier League’s most popular winners ever, even Chelsea fans seemed to have forgotten who they took the title from. There’s a feeling out there that the big boys will come Fox hunting for players now but, you know, I’m not so sure about that. Jamie Vardy signed a new deal that has him earning £80m a week – and this on the team with the fourth lowest wage bill in the Premier League. There is so much money there, only the top clubs in Europe are competing with the English pounds. So why else would they leave? Trophies? Validification? They’re getting both of those at Leicester and they’re in the Champions League as well. I don’t see why the likes of Mahrez and Kante would want to leave that.

Likewise I’m not so convinced that they’ll fall back all that far in performance. An injury to a key dude would be a blow – this is still a tight squad. Yet after 38 games they’ve shown enough adaptability to where nobody has figured them out so far. What I will say is that I expect other teams to get better while Leicester have already peaked. They might drop a little, but don’t be chasing those relegation odds. Same goes in the Champions League where I actually reckon they could do great. Their throwback direct style of play caught England off guard and it’s not like Spanish or German teams are more used to that or anything. Playing twice a week is bound to be a struggle, although this squad could have several new faces to help that in a few months.

As will Manchester City's. Oh my Lord were they terrible to end the season. So bad. Their 2-2 draw with Arsenal was one of the most entertaining games all season but not because of the quality on display. As for the Swansea draw, that was plain awful. If people think that Pep Guardiola has it easy with City then they’re dead wrong, they may have unlimited funds but it’s what you do with that money that matters. City went on the greatest spending spree in PL history when they picked up the bulk of their title winning team over about two seasons and yet for about three or four seasons after that they bought nobody of any real note. Hence why that initial group is still dominating the appearances and why this team looks so damn old. They went about rectifying that finally with some smart additions last summer (De Bruyne, Otamendi, Sterling, etc.) but it was too little too late for the short term. Guardiola is gonna want to swing the axe here. At least half of the team that lined up against Swansea has zero guarantee that they’ll be back. He needs another forward, he needs creativity (beyond Silva and KDB), he needs an entirely new midfield for Fernandinho to play with and he needs to almost rebuild that defence from scratch. Toughest of all is he needs to find a way to get rid of the dead wood without costing a fortune. Many of those guys would probably be happy to hang around and get in the way for the dollars they’re earning – some are already doing that.

Manchester United, I think I’ll spend a full article on later. Suffice to say that I doubt Louis Van Gaal will be back – watching them play 44 minutes against Bournemouth without barely taking a shot despite overwhelming possession was almost enough to be glad their season is basically over. I happen to think that appointing Jose Mourinho would be a disaster (one hands-on squad tinkerer replacing another is clearly beyond Ed Woodward’s transfer completing capabilities), however there are other candidates out there. Ryan Giggs would do me fine, experience is overrated.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic at Old Trafford sounds amazing if that’s anything more than wishful thinking. They also have to do something about their midfield, especially if Michael Carrick is released (give him another year, I say – he’s showing his age but he’s also the best they’ve got). Maybe a bulky centre back to tactically rotate with Daley Blind too. Fifth was not good enough and this team plays far too laboured to get away with that. On the plus side, Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford are just sublime and Wayne Rooney has been brilliant this last month in midfield. Solves more than a couple issues, that.

Southampton seemed to creep under the radar and yet for the sixth season in a row they’ve improved upon their previous league finish. For the first season in ages, they don’t seem to be in too much danger of having their first team poached by Liverpool, Man Utd or Arsenal, meaning as long as Ronald Koeman doesn’t jump ship (and he shouldn’t feel any inclination to), there’ll finally be some real stability there going into the next campaign. Virgil Van Dijk was a magnificent purchase, Jordy Clasie showed glimpses and Fraser Forster is now a lock in for any England squad. Both Forster and James Ward-Prowse have signed new deals recently. JWP is a player due a breakout soon, this Saints production line is far from depleted. Maybe if they can avoid their annual December slump next time they’ll finish even higher.

Two teams I see in similar places are West Ham and Stoke. Each are going about significant reshaping after years of slow, lumping football. Except that they might be headed in opposite directions. West Ham will have to wait until the FA Cup final to know if they’re off to Europe, while Stoke were a couple places back long since out of that race. The difference is that WHU are built on strong defensive foundations (normally – they can be a bit error prone) whereas Stoke rely significantly on Ryan Shawcross and Jack Butland. Without them they’re kinda bad defensively. Plus Dimitri Payet is plain better than Bojan or Shaqiri. West Ham are a team that can definitely consolidate this effort, especially if they can be as successful in the transfer market. They have a prudent manager with success across a range of tactics and a squad that mostly rolled with the punches. Stoke do not. Mark Hughes is a solid boss but he’s working with a squad of about six or seven wonderful players and a range of battlers. Gianelli Imbula has settled in well in midfield though, that’s a start.

Man, what can you say about Liverpool? Keep doing what you’re doing, I suppose. Jurgen Klopp basically got a free run after Brendan Rodgers, which made for a write-off league season (and a thrilling Europa League run) but should have big advantages in the future. Most new coaches want to shape the squad to their style when they arrive but few get to do it with the knowledge of the players that Klopp now has. Their defence is a steaming mess, their keeper could be plenty better. Christian Benteke will probably want a loan out as well. But Adam Lallana has never looked a more complete player and Roberto Firmino is going from strength to strength. Emre Can had a solid year too. There is plenty to work with and Liverpool should back themselves to be back in the Champions League race next time.

Chelsea though… not so sure. Antonio Conte doesn’t have Klopp’s extended settling period, he has to figure out a way to turn this team of bottlers back into the stars they were. There were hints of it late in the season when the prize of ruining Tottenham’s season was on the line – a little motivation goes a long way – though fans will have been perfectly in their rights to wonder where they hell that had been all season. Many did.

On one hand, large scale rebuilds almost always mean a transitional season and that didn’t begin post-Mou despite the opportunity. Instead they sort of coasted their way through, although Guus Hiddink gets a lot of credit for giving those guys some belief back. Chelsea won’t want another year out of Europe. But on the other hand, do you really want to rely on the likes of Cesc Fabregas, Eden Hazard and Diego Costa again after what they just showed you? All of them already had flaky reputations. Let alone players such as Branislav Ivanovic and Nemanja Matic. Conte comes in with a design on committed defending and that’ll be a push back towards the old Mou years… which is what they need. Hey, those were their best years, right? There’s a lot of work to do and some difficult decisions to make, but I’ll say this: you’ll be surprised how much difference one or two players can make. John Stones and Radja Nainggolan, for example. But John Terry can go. Make some bucks in China, dude, let it go.

Roberto Martinez had come to the end of his worth at Everton. The same problems that caused his Wigan demise came to the forefront with the Toffees as their defence collapsed once Tim Howard’s aged joints did the same and credit where it’s due for their passing games but a midfield of Tom Cleverley and Gary Barry wasn’t shielding those woes. James McCarthy does his bit at least (and I’m high on the potential of Muhamed Besic). Add in that and the fact that they played a predictable attack through Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku – two magnificent talents but when they’re running the whole show, the opposition knows exactly what to do – and things got pretty bad. I never like to see managers sacked, since they’re almost always sacked too early, but this one was inarguable. Note how they were immediately better without him.

Now replacing Martinez becomes the most important decision this team has made since even before they rejected Chelsea’s Stones dollars. They need to get this one right because the boost of a new gaffer is one they cannot afford to waste. Well, afford might be the wrong word. Stones, Barkley and Lukaku are all prized players. Eventually you can’t keep rejecting other offers. Everton has not done enough to show that it’s worth staying for those guys and now they’re in for another offseason of rumours legit and not. Should they lose one of them it then becomes imperative to reinvest that cash or they’ll soon hear about it.

Watford are the other team searching for a boss, which is a shame for those of us who bathed in the classy visage of Quique Sanchez Flores. Released after one season, that seems so trigger-happy – even their own players agree:

Troy Deeney: “Sunderland have been in the bottom three, managed to stay up and Sam Allardyce is being hailed as a great manager - which he is, for keeping them up. But we’ve seemingly coasted through this season and our gaffer’s been sacked. It’s one of those crazy ones.”

I sort of see the logic though. QSF was a steadying hand, he came in to establish them in the top flight at short notice – like, they were promoted without a manager for this season. Now they’re established and they want to take things to another level. Flores was a very conservative boss whose midfields really didn’t offer much on attack. Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo were up to most of that. When Ighalo faded, Watford faded. Flores’ time there was a success but that doesn’t mean he’s the right guy going forward. Or rather, that doesn’t mean they can’t do better. I’m a little gutted but a part of me applauds the guts.

Swansea don’t need a new manager. Francesco Guidolin deservedly got his extension after a strong finish to things – which included big wins over Liverpool and West Ham as well as a draw with Man City. They really turned it around in a hurry after being thrashed by Newcastle and Leicester. That might be a flash in the pan but I’m not convinced there's any reason to worry about that. There was a purpose to their footy again, players were stepping up even with their best guys rested. The Welsh lads are in a comfortable enough mid-table position though Aston Villa will tell you how quickly that can change. Bafetimbi Gomis, despite an early tease, did not cover the loss of Wilfried Bony the previous January and when you don’t replace your best players then mid-table teams quickly become relegation scrappers. Christian Benteke, Ron Vlaar, Tom Cleverley, Fabian Delph… what do they all have in common? None will be playing Championship next season (unless voluntarily, of course). Ashley Williams, Jack Cork, Andre Ayew and Gylfi Sigurdsson are the core of this team. They need to add to that and not subtract from it – there’s ya target.

I have no firm opinions on West Brom. Solid all round, nothing really to worry about. It’d be nice if Saido Berahino could finally be sold to a team more fitting for him, that’s all. Expect more shrewd signings and let’s see if Tony Pulis can finally achieve his destiny and pick a team of 11 centre-backs. Similar for Crystal Palace who desperately need a striker that’s worth a damn but otherwise can field a pretty decent first XI. Add some depth so that they can stay above water if Yannick Bolasie is injured again and there ya go. As bad as they’ve been in 2016, it’s worth remembering that the first half of the campaign they were doing some genuine things.

The promotion of Bournemouth was a great story a year ago. It has since been surpassed by significantly greater stories but let’s not overlook how well Bournemouth did here. There were no crazy risks, they held faith in the manager and players that got them here, extending that faith through some poor results to where they finally clicked with wins over Chelsea and Man Utd and eventually avoided the drop zone by five clear points – safety guaranteed without too much sweat in the end. A few significant injuries were a worry but some clever acquisitions (Benik Afobe in particular) saw them through. The Cherries are prime candidates for a bit of second season syndrome now. That’s something they need to be aware of, you must keep improving. In particular building on a defence that was mostly with them in league one is a start. Having Callum Wilson for a season will help.

Sam Allardyce, aye, how does he do it? Actually, there’s no secret. He organises his defence well and he plays a style of footy that’s simple and effective. At first that had no effect. Then they started to edge out draws. Then they finally got a few wins and now they’ll be back in the Premier League again. Incredible given a month or two in they looked worse than doomed. The other thing that Sunderland did superbly with was the January transfer window. Both they and Newcastle were super busy but while Jonjo Shelvey was sitting on the bench, Jan Kirchhoff was helping his team stay afloat. Wahbi Khazri was wasteful on occasion but when you can score a goal like he did against Chelsea… wow. Next step is to get rid of some of that dead weight because otherwise they’ll find themselves in the same of dilemma.

You know, for a relegated team, Newcastle is about as well-off as you can hope for. Rafa Benitez now wants to stay and that isn’t as insane as it sounds. This team has quality players. Some will leave, others will stay. Regardless they are going to have the ability to boomerang right back up. In the same way as Jurgen Klopp got a year to learn the club and his players, Rafa would have that same luxury. He can completely rebuild this team now and it’ll be all his work in a way that Real Madrid never could have been. For someone with bugger all to prove, that’s kinda cool. It’ll be fun to see which players clamour for the door now, I reckon Aleksandar Mitrovic could really use 12 months in the Championship. Play regularly, score goals and most of all mature in a less focussed environment. Same for Shelvey, actually. This season was a complete disaster but if it proves to flush out some of the problems with this club then it’ll have been to some positive at least.

Ah, Norwich. Just not enough ability in the team, really. They might have escaped if Tim Klose wasn’t hurt but that’d only disguise the inadequacies. When it really mattered, with their future on the line, they couldn’t score goals. But the good news is that they have a fine young manager and some handy parachute payments to help adjust. There is every chance they can shoot back up again before long.

Aston Villa. ‘nuff said.