It was roughly eleven minutes into the Wellington Phoenix’s game away against Adelaide United. The Nix were steadily knocking the ball around at the back but were gently being nudged further towards their own goal. So Kosta Barbarouses dipped deep and collected a quick one-touch angled pass from Alex Rufer. He then dribbled about thirty metres into space before picking out Tim Payne wide right whose low cross was turned home by Bozhidar Kraev at the near post. The goal didn’t count because Kraev was offside but it was yet another slick example of how quickly this Nix team, under Giancarlo Italiano, can flick the switch into attack mode. And how prominent Kosta Barbarouses has been within that.

About three minutes later the Welly Nix took the lead when Rufer chipped across to Lukas Kelly-Heald at the back post who nodded it back over for Barbarouses to tap into the empty net after sneaking around his marker. Kosta would score again early in the second half, hunting in the right place at the right time to collect a failed ADL clearance and slam it into the bottom corner. Once again occupying those sneaky pockets of space. Once again showing brilliant movement and awareness and decision-making. After going 17 A-League appearances in a row without a goal, Kosta has now scored six times in his last four.

A month ago, we chucked up an article about how much more efficient the Welly Nix had become under Giancarlo Italiano’s management. There have been lots of little adjustments (and a couple of big ones) that have led to this team sitting pretty near the top of the table. One of the major ones is an emphasis on better shots rather than more shots... and vice versa in defence (allowing shots from certain low-risk areas, restricting them from others). Nobody has embodied that more than our main man Kosta Barbarouses.

Last season old mate Kosta looked like a brother on his last legs as part of a team with an allergy towards converting big chances. They were the xG killers and he was one of the worst culprits. Despoilers of the art of finishing. Obviously Oskar Zawada is excluded from that because his goals pretty much carried this team into the playoffs... where they got blanked for the third finals game in a row. You’ve gotta go back to Marko Rudan’s lone season to find the Nix’s last finals goal, unsurprisingly scored by Roy Krishna. Funny story: Kosta Barbarouses scored against the Wellington Phoenix that day for Melbourne Victory.

To be fair, Kraev was okay last term too. It’s just that five of his seven goal were scored in his first eight games followed by two in 18 the rest of the way... so it was a front-loaded influence. The Nix also sold Ben Waine along the way and never replaced him. Ben Old struggled with injury. They needed their experienced forwards to take the pressure off Zawada and those fellas failed to do so.

Welly Nix Goals versus xG (2022-23)

Oskar Zawada – 15 goals from 12.7 xG (+2.3)
Bozhidar Kraev – 7 goals from 5.6 xG (+1.4)
Yan Sasse – 3 goals from 5.6 xG (-2.6)
Kosta Barbarouses – 2 goals from 5.3 xG (-3.3)
David Ball – 1 goal from 3.9 xG (-2.9)

That was what Chief inherited, except with Yan Sasse having left without replacement. Now look at how things are sitting after eleven games of this season and it’s been a completely different story (except for David Ball). Just look at what Kosta’s doing here. Look upon his works and tremble...

Welly Nix Goals versus xG (2023-24)

Kosta Barbarouses – 6 goals from 4.0 xG (+2.0)
Bozhidar Kraev – 4 goals from 3.4 xG (+0.6)
Oskar Zawada – 4 goals from 3.1 xG (+0.9)
David Ball – 0 goals from 1.3 xG (-1.3)
Ben Old – 2 goals from 1.1 xG (+0.9)
Nico Pennington – 0 goals from 0.8 xG (-0.8)

Kosta has gone from being the furthest bloke behind his expected goals to being the furthest ahead of it. He also, just quietly, happens to have the most assists in the team as well. This is more than a late-ish career resurgence as he nears his 34th birthday in February. This is, so far, one of the very best seasons of his entire career. In fact if you wanna measure it by goal contributions per ninety minutes then, as things stand, it is the single best season of his career. He’s at 0.83 goal contributions/90 this term, far ahead of the 2018-19 efforts with Melbourne Victory (0.70). Last season was his worst in that regard.

How has he achieved this glorious revival? The same way that the whole team has turned things around. When Italiano spoke pre-season about wanting to change a few tactical things in order to better suit the players he’s got at his disposal... this is what he was talking about. Last year’s Nix were slower in possession, more deliberate in their actions. This year’s team play faster and looser. One style isn’t inherently better than the other but there will be players who have their natural preferences and with Kosta Barbarouses he just loves the opportunity to stretch his legs.

The numbers back this up. Kosta has gone from 0.65 successful dribbles per ninety minutes to 1.47 successful dribbles per ninety between seasons. He’s running past defenders twice as often as before... and that’s just what he’s doing with the ball at his feet. His best attribute has always been his off-ball movement, that clever ability to drift or dash into space, piercing defensive lines and dragging opponents out of shape.

The kind of stuff that creates for others as much as it does for himself, hence his underpar finishing has tended not to be such a drama in the past. Barbarouses does have a spectacular A-League history with 85 career goals (including double figures for four different clubs). That’s sixth all-time, trailing only Jamie Maclaren, Besart Berisha, Bruno Fornaroli, Shane Smeltz, and Archie Thompson. However it’s taken 307 games to get there so it’s not like he’s been a perennial golden boot threat. His finishing has been lovely of late... but not because he’s suddenly figured out the magic formula. He’s the same player he always has been, it’s just now that he’s got a manager emphasising quality over quantity. Here are some more pesky numbers...

Kosta Barbarouses in 2022-23 vs Kosta Barbarouses in 2023-24

Minutes played: 1383 | 975
Goals (Assists): 2 (0) | 6 (3)
G+A per 90: 0.13 | 0.83
Shots per 90: 2.47 | 1.85
Shots on Target: 42.1% | 70.0%
Goals per Shot: 0.05 | 0.30
xG per 90: 0.34 | 0.37
Successful Dribbles per 90: 0.65 | 1.47
Touches in Opposition Box per 90: 4.82 | 4.88

Righto, what can we glean from all that? His touches in the box are almost identical. Already mentioned how he’s dribbling much more (and more successfully). Obviously his goal contributions have taken a massive leap because that’s the whole reason for this here write-up. But what you really want to take notice of there is the significant drop in shots, the crazy rate of shots on target, and the near-mirrored xG rate. In other words: he’s shooting less but has had a slight boost in expected goals. That tells you that he’s taking higher percentage attempts. Not tallying up the xG with halfies but really trying to work the best possible shooting opportunity instead... hence his shots on target numbers.

Short of conducting some sort of psychic mind-reading scheme, this next idea is impossible to validate without speaking to the bloke (or his coach) but the impression you get of Kosta this season is that he only shoots when he thinks he’s a genuine chance of scoring. He’s not even bothering with the speculators. If he doesn’t have a clear lane then he’s keeping the ball moving and trying to spark something better. He’s been a little more forthright recently as his confidence has returned during this run of goals, but he’s a clever fella who knows what’s working for him so the overriding theme isn’t about to change.

Compare last season’s shot map (left) to this season’s shot map (right) and pay particular attention to where those six goals have been scored from. Six goals from 20 shots is bonkers stuff. Mad precision. At his current rate, he’s on course for 7.6 xG by the time he reaches 38 shots. A loose definition is that the closer you are to the goal, the higher the Expected Goals will be.

There’s also something to say about how he’s finished those chances because it’s not like these goals are pinging pinpoint bottom corner. They’ve all crossed the line fairly close to the centre which tells you that he’s poaching when the keeper is out of position. Maybe covering the post leading to a tap-in, like his first goal against Adelaide. Maybe slipping it past them as they close him down like he did for his first against Macarthur recently (the goal that broke the drought). Completing team moves rather than igniting individual efforts. You get the idea. (Also, click to enlarge the pics if you need to - these shot maps courtesy of FotMob).

The outcome of all this is that a veteran kiwi forward, who many might have thought was all wound up a few months back, has had a spectacular return to form. Meaning that Phoenix fans finally get to see this version of Kosta in yellow and black... because it’s been a trend of his career that the Nix have suffered through his weakest sauce despite three separate stints at his hometown club.

He was a teenager only breaking through in his first stint, so fair enough. But second stint he was in his prime and seen as a marquee signing... only to struggle through a difficult season and then leave after just one year of a three-year contract. That was Ernie Merrick’s last season, spent largely with Des Buckingham and Chris Greenacre as interims. Kosta did still get five goals and five assists so any harshness against Barbarouses over that season is more about how he left rather than how he played. But then there was last season, spluttering away with his lowest ever goals and assists ratio. It wasn’t looking good, bruh.

And now, suddenly, it is.

Kosta Barbarouses by ALM Club

Wellington Phoenix: 81 games | 15 goals | 0.41 G+A/90
Brisbane Roar: 33 games | 12 goals | 0.60 G+A/90
Melbourne Victory: 127 games | 41 goals | 0.55 G+A/90
Sydney FC: 66 games | 17 goals | 0.51 G+A/90

Remember he’s at 0.83 G+A/90 this season... more than double what his Nix rate was before it began (btw, pedantic note but the G+A/90 rates don’t include finals games while the overall tallies do... fbref don’t count finals for some reason which is why).

There is another important point of context with all this: Barbarouses won championships with each of the other three clubs. Legendary achievement aside that also means, very simply, that he was playing for good teams who won a lot. This season... the Welly Nix are winning a lot. Kosta’s back up near the top of the ladder where he usually resides and it seems like it wouldn’t be a hamstring-tearing stretch to suggest that his style of player is not necessarily one that’ll lift bad teams but is absolutely one that complements good teams. Great off-ball movement still requires teammates sharp enough to take advantage... although not sure that idea gives enough credit to how much he’s instigating for the Nix these days.

However we got here, we got here. Kosta Barbarouses is scoring goals for the Wellington Phoenix. More than 300 games deep and still with plenty more to offer. In fact this cheeky resurgence might even put him back in the All Whites picture... where his four goals in 54 caps could also do with a bit of glamourising. That’ll be the next task.

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