Exploring The Early 2024 Blackcaps Test Mixer
A glorious wave of Test cricket is looming on the horizon in Aotearoa with South Africa and Australia lined up for World Test Championship fixtures starting in early February. Blackcaps split their tour of Bangladesh with a loss and a win, offering a 50 percent win rate and they are one of four teams who have started this WTC at that 50 percent mark or better.
The Test mixer for a home summer is different to that we saw in Bangladesh. Blackcaps carried five spin options in Bangladesh with Ajaz Patel, Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi leading that group. Glenn Phillips was one of Aotearoa's best players with bat, ball and in the field against Bangladesh as another spin option. Rachin Ravindra was also in the squad as cover for nearly every role in the team.
As all kiwi cricket fans know, there is little need for a frontline spinner in Aotearoa. There could be a tweak in Blackcaps Test operations this summer though as Santner, Phillips and Ravindra all bolster the batting as spin bowlers. These three aren't quite genuine all-rounders but they are good cricketers who add value to the team. Consider the role of Colin de Grandhomme as a 1st 11 Test cricketer as that spot in the team could become Phillips' for example.
Michael Bracewell would be in this mix but he has not returned to cricket yet. Bracewell played five of seven Tests this year, bowling 161.5 which is only behind Tim Southee (252.5ov) and Matt Henry (196ov). Leaning into the spinny all-rounders opens up space for an enticing bowling attack for New Zealand conditions, even assuming that Trent Boult won't play - assume he won't play and if he does, then it is a bonus).
This Test 1st 11 isn't presented as a likely team, just the funkiest team that I would love to see...
Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Tom Blundell
Mitchell Santner, Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner
That team has four seamers and two spinners, which weakens the batting a wee bit. Don't sleep on the batting ability of those bowlers though as Santner played a key role with the bat in Bangladesh, with a Test batting average of 25. Henry averages 37 in Test batting this year and his career average is 22, slightly higher than Jamieson's 19avg. Even Wagner's has been improving as a batter...
All the niggle about Henry Nicholls revolves around his mahi in Aotearoa compared to overseas. No matter how much you don't want Nicholls in the team, why would you drop a bloke who averages 48 in Aotearoa for Tests in Aotearoa? Since January 1st 2013, only three batters (Williamson, Latham, Luteru Taylor) have scored more runs in Aotearoa than Nicholls. Nicholls' average in Aotearoa is better than Blundell's 41avg, similar to Conway's 49avg, a smidge lower than Mitchell's 50avg and far better than Will Young's 24avg or Ravindra's 10avg.
Only three Blackcaps batters have more Test centuries than Nicholls in Aotearoa (Williamson, Taylor, John Wright). Nicholls' eight Test centuries is the same as Martin Crowe and Brendon McCullum, with Crowe (50avg) and McCullum (47avg) having similar averages to Nicholls. Stephen Fleming averaged 33 in Aotearoa, Nathan Astle and BJ Watling averaged 39.
Based purely on production and less on opinion, Nicholls is one of the best Blackcaps batters ever for Tests in Aotearoa. While I'd rather have a funky bowling unit including Phillips as a top-five batter, Nicholls will likely be selected for the first Test of the summer and his mahi will dictate what happens next. Blackcaps can either leave Santner out and roll with four seamers, plus Phillips' spin or leave out a seamer which would probably be Wagner if all the lads are available.
Everyone is buzzing about Ravindra, but he sits below a few lads in the Blackcaps Test rankings with bat and ball. Ravindra's T20 hype overlooks a Super Smash career in which he averages 16 with the bat. After 18 T20I games, Ravindra averages 13 with the bat. Ravindra's First-Class batting average of 38 is lower than Phillips' 42, Young's 40avg and better than Santner's 30avg.
Ravindra and Phillips have both played three Tests and 40+ FC games, offering a lovely comparison...
Rachin Ravindra (batting | bowling)
Tests: 14.6avg | 62.66avg
FC: 38.77avg | 50.96avg
Glenn Phillips
Tests: 46.6avg | 16.37avg
FC: 42.39avg | 37.22avg
Aotearoa is not thirsty for cricketing talent. This applies to the seam stocks as well, where Scott Kuggeleijn and Jacob Duffy are next in line. What has Kuggeleijn done after his Test debut last season? He was the best NZ-A bowler in two wins and two draws against Australia A, followed by taking the most wickets in the first four games of Plunket Shield. The three best bowlers in Plunket Shield this season set this up nicely...
Scott Kuggeleijn: 22w @ 16avg/2.9rpo
Nathan Smith: 21w @ 15avg/2.9rpo
Jacob Duffy: 21w @ 18avg/2.7rpo
Kuggeleijn and Duffy are Aotearoa's next best red-ball seamers. Doug Bracewell played a Test last summer as well and while he's been smacking runs for Central Districts, Bracewell has not been bowling. Bracewell did bowl in the first stanza of Plunket Shield though and was fantastic with 16w @ 16avg/2.6rpo. Bracewell is still in the mix and along with Kuggeleijn, they both average 25+ with the bat in FC cricket.
Smith is cooking in all formats for Wellington and is someone who would benefit from being around the Blackcaps Test group in a development spot. What about Will O'Rourke, who has similar buzz as Ravindra? O'Rourke was selected for Blackcaps in his best format (one-day) and while he has a nifty seam bowling profile, Smith is a better seamer right now and has been better over a longer period of time.
Regardless, Smith and O'Rourke are two seamers on the rise who bolster Blackcaps depth. Blair Tickner has fallen out of favour after his Test debut last season, missing out of various Blackcaps squads recently. Henry Shipley is just as intriguing as Smith and O'Rourke yet he seems to be out injured at the moment. Factoring in who is playing cricket at the moment and likely Test selections such as Nicholls, here is a possible 2nd 11 that balances winning cricket with development...
Will Young, Sean Solia, Rachin Ravindra, Tom Bruce, Mitch Hay (wk), Doug Bracewell,
Nathan Smith, Scott Kuggeleijn, Ajaz Patel, Jacob Duffy, William O'Rourke
Tom Blundell's got the wicket-keeping role sussed and if Blackcaps needed a bloke to plug a hole in this position, Dane Cleaver or Tim Seifert are the leading candidates. Hay is the best young wicket-keeper/batter in Aotearoa right now and has featured prominently (along with Smith, O'Rourke and Aotearoa's best youngsters) in our domestic cricket coverage. If Blackcaps need a short-term solution then Cleaver and Seifert can do a job, while Hay is a development project to keep close tabs on.
Blackcaps Test cricket is not a development arena. Aotearoa has a strong domestic circuit that prepares players for international cricket as well as 'A' fixtures that bridge the gap between these two levels. Blackcaps need to win Tests and as is evident with White Ferns, selecting young players can hinder winning. The best cricketers in Aotearoa are mature lads, who know their game and add value to the environment. There are still spots up for grabs though and the best players, such as Glenn Phillips are ready to pounce on any opportunity.
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Peace and love.