Blackcaps vs South Africa Test Series: State Of Affairs & Squad Breakdown
Test cricket is approaching with the New Zealand vs South Africa Test series to start in a week's time at Bay Oval before heading down the highway to Seddon Park for the second Test. The Blackcaps squad has been named and while much of the buzz for this series stems from growing anxiety about the state of cricket, kiwis love cricket and any chance to see the Blackcaps play in the whites is savoured.
This will be a fascinating series for a variety of reasons. Don't fall into the trap of angst that is usually driven by cricketing pundits from nations who have suffocated the growth of Test cricket. Cricket South Africa is in a unique spot where their precarious financial position is aligned with that of their nation, they have endured mismanagement for years and because of this, they have bowed down to one of the nations who rule the cricketing world.
CSA need to have the SA20 competition played at this time for financial reasons. That's their problem and in Aotearoa, NZC is building strong foundations with a vibrant financial position now funding immense growth for cricket in NZ. One can check in with NZC's annual report where they state that NZC had a net surplus of $10.7m which was above the budgeted surplus of $7.4m.
Don't worry about those figures though or sifting through complex language to make sense of annual report stuff, just look around. NZC hosted the Women's Pacific Cup and there has been an increase in 'cultural cricket' with an influx of Aotearoa Maori teams. The Under 19 lads are at a World Cup right now and NZC must also fund an U19 Women's team for their World Cups. Consistent 'A' cricket is played for men and women below the first-class level each summer, let alone the increase in player salaries for men and women.
As other sports such as rugby union and netball worry about crowd sizes or hype for their competitions, cricket is joined by rugby league, football and basketball in building comprehensive roots throughout Aotearoa. These roots feature more opportunities for men and women of all cultures to play cricket, which then grows the communities who support cricket.
Will O'Rourke was named to join the Blackcaps Test squad for the second fixture in a nifty development wrinkle (more on that below). O'Rourke is an injection of seam bowling x-factor who leaped into the Blackcaps Test mix after playing two 'A' series against Australia A. Not only did the NZ-A team win both series but O'Rourke was impressive in Aotearoa and Australia which was one of a few key development pockets last year.
What changed from last summer to this summer for O'Rourke's Blackcaps selection case? O'Rourke played four longform games against Australia A. This is another example of NZC's financial position as there is a steady diet of 'A' cricket below the Blackcaps level which is also emerging in the women's system. NZC hosted Australia A for two games at the end of the summer last year and then sent an NZ-A team over the ditch, all of which costs money.
You're not here for NZ Warriors insights but NZW will roll out three junior teams below their reserve grade outfit this season. Why hasn't this happened before? No one wanted to or could invest enough money in making this happen - it's expensive to send Under 17, Under 19 and Under 21 teams to Australia every second weekend. NZW now have ownership that is willing and able to spend money, as well as a solid business structure that ensures sustainability.
The latest Blackcaps Test squad member in O'Rourke benefited directly from NZC's financial position, let alone everything else that is popping off in cricketing communities around Aotearoa. Unlike NZC, Cricket South Africa is not in a strong financial position and have made moves to fix that which is why their Test 1st 11 is playing SA20. That's South Africa's issue, not ours as kiwis and despite the moaning from folks around the world, it's not their problem either.
Like you, I love Test cricket and I love Test cricket played in Aotearoa. While the scarcity of Test cricket played in kiwi summers was a bummer when it first started to seep into schedules, the lack of Tests played in NZ makes every Test a major event. Headlines were whipped up about the NZ vs Australia Test at the Basin Reserve already having multiple days sold out. That makes sense as it's the only chance for folks in the Wellington region to show up at the home of cricket in Aotearoa and watch their team play Test cricket.
Blackcaps will play South Africa in the Bay of Plenty and Waikato regions. Folks from Northland, Auckland, Taranaki and Hawke's Bay may join locals in snapping up their chance to watch NZ play Test cricket. As evident in monster crowds for two T20Is played at Hagley Oval a few days apart or Nelson packing out Saxton Oval for an ODI against Bangladesh; Blackcaps have no issues drawing big crowds across Aotearoa.
Scarcity is likely to ensure that regardless of who the opposition is, kiwis will show up in abundance to watch their Blackcaps play Test cricket at Bay Oval and Seddon Park. While some nations pick and choose their Test opponents solely for financial purposes, NZ has long embraced the cricketing world with frequent tours from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, West Indies etc. Kiwis show up for those Tests regardless of the opposition and unlike other nations, we don't complain about who the opposition is.
Who cares what South Africa is up to or the anxiety of other cricketing folks around the world. This is our opportunity to celebrate Test cricket and celebrate one of four chances to see Blackcaps play Test cricket in Aotearoa.
It's also a funky series in the context of the World Test Championship (which NZ has won, unlike the 'best' cricketing nations). Blackcaps split their series in Bangladesh 1-1 which gives both nations a 50% win rate and South Africa is also 1-1 in the WTC. Home fixtures are crucial for WTC success along with a few wins and draw overseas, so NZ need wins. Winning at Bay Oval has been tricky for the Blackcaps though as they are 2-2 there, with the losses coming in their last two games played at Bay Oval.
Bay Oval and Seddon Park are Aotearoa's most spinniest decks, with the former being the most spinniest. This could have influenced selections in favour of Ajaz Patel or Ish Sodhi, but the all-round skills of Mitchell Santner and Glenn Phillips were on show in Bangladesh which will ensure Blackcaps have decent spin options. Santner is the most skillful spinner from Aotearoa so his selection is aligned with that, although Santner and Phillips offer good-enough spin as well as being the best batting options in the all-rounder slots.
With that in mind, leaving Patel and Sodhi out of the squad is not really a 'tough call' as Gary Stead outlined in the announcement. They both showcase the immense depth of talent in Aotearoa and have already helped NZ perform well overseas which will continue. Patel and Sodhi weren't 'dropped' ... but Henry Nicholls has been dropped.
The 'Early Test Mixer' offered balance in how Nicholls was being talked about after another stinker Test series in Bangladesh. Getting deep into the Blackcaps mangroves requires various perspectives and the defence of Nicholls was his mahi in Aotearoa. That wasn't enough to stretch out his selection faith for this series and Rachin Ravindra has been selected, with the announcement specifically mentioning Ravindra as a middle-order replacement for Nicholls.
Balance is also required for the Ravindra hype. While Ravindra is a very good cricketer who deserves this opportunity, expectations need to be managed. Ravindra is not in form...
Ravindra has scores of 13, 18*, 4, 18, 4 and 16 in Test cricket. Ravindra has not played a Plunket Shield game this season and has averaged 40+ for one of his five summers of First-Class cricket in Aotearoa. If you're worried about Santner or Phillips as Test spinners, at least they don't average 50.9 in FC bowling.
Ravindra has gathered T20 hype with batting averages of 12.16 in T20I and 15.12 in T20 (mostly Super Smash). While not in the Test/FC bubble, this T20 hype is aligned with the perception of Ravindra. Ravindra's too classy to continue his dip in form since the World Cup, especially given his quality in FC cricket but folks should keep a lid on expectations for Ravindra in this Test series.
Having laid out the Devon Conway T20I batting slump, here is Conway's Test batting slump...
2021: 63.16avg
2022: 49.92avg
2023: 32.46avg
Conway had scores of 12, 22, 11 and 2 in the tour of Bangladesh. This is part of Conway's last 10 games in which has one score over 40, with no scores over 30 in his last eight games. Conway does however average 49 in NZ and his two Tests at Bay Oval have produced scores of 122, 13, 77 and 2. While Conway has slipped below Daryl Mitchell as the best Blackcaps batters behind Kane Williamson, he is a key joker to watch out for in this series as Blackcaps Test success requires as much run-scoring support for Williamson as possible.
Neil Wagner is the most interest bowler after taking 11w @ 40avg/5.7rpo in Test cricket last year. Wagner averaged below 30 in seven of eight years between 2014-2021 before jumping above 30avg in each of the last two years. Last winter Wagner took 7w @ 33avg/3.3rpo in County Championship with Somerset and he took 5w @ 24avg/2.6rpo in his two Plunket Shield games earlier in the summer; 4w were taken in one innings though.
The three best seamers are Tim Southee, Matt Henry and Kyle Jamieson. Blackcaps can either try to fit Phillips and Santner into the team or go with one of them along with Wagner. Bay Oval conditions seem better suited to the Phillips/Santner combo but Wagner has been good at his local ground with 21w @ 25avg in four Tests at Bay Oval.
Funky 1st 11
Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Rachin Ravindra, Tom Blundell (wk), Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner, Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, Tim Southee
That leaves Wagner and Will Young as squad members who can step in seamlessly.. O'Rourke's selection for the second Test could ensure him selection there, however this seems more like an opportunity to bring O'Rourke into the squad and ease him into the Test grind. O'Rourke has jumped ahead of a few seamers who could have been given selection nods and that is probably because of the development boost O'Rourke will receive.
At this stage it's unlikely O'Rourke plays against South Africa and he will benefit greatly from absorbing Wagner's mana, or learning the craft off Southee. This is aligned with how Blackcaps operate in building Test depth as Ravindra went to the World Test Championship final as a squad member before making his debut for example. Slide back further and Blundell sat behind BJ Watling for a few years, while Henry was a consistent squad member before snapping up his opportunities.
Keep in mind that there is a new selection regime under Sam Wells. A fresh approach was already evident for the tour of Bangladesh as Blackcaps rolled out a spin quartet of Santner, Phillips, Patel and Sodhi. Phillips was barely in the Test mix before Wells gained influence and this has flowed into Ravindra taking Nicholls' spot as well as O'Rourke getting a look at Test cricket.
Wells has a fantastic pool of players to select from, perhaps the most talented Blackcaps pool ever. None of that will matter if NZ struggle against South Africa though and after dipping down the WTC charts as they wiggled into a new era, Blackcaps face a funky challenge against the touring South Africans.
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Peace and love.