New Zealand vs Sri Lanka First Test Preview
New Zealand continue on their solid World Test Championship campaign with two Tests in Sri Lanka starting this Wednesday, where they will need to quickly adjust and adapt after no cricket was played against Afghanistan. No point tripping over what happened last week and the lack of play against Afghanistan now amplifies the importance for a swift start to the first Test in Sri Lanka.
Most of the Blackcaps Test ideas from the winter still apply now. The Blackcaps Test Mixer was narrowed down to a Test squad for this phase and there are no updates to the Blackcaps vs Afghanstain Test Preview. World Test Championship context frames this tour of Sri Lanka with Blackcaps sitting in third on a 50% winning rate and Sri Lanka are fifth with 42.86% winning.
Since first touring Sri Lanka in 1984, Aotearoa has five wins, five draws and seven losses. Blackcaps have two wins and a loss in their last three Tests though, stretching over two different tours. The last two wins for the kiwis were by hefty margins with a 167-run win in 2012 and a win by an innings and 65 runs in 2019. The 2019 tour started with a 6-wicket loss and this sparks up a trend of Blackcaps losing the first of two Tests in their last three tours.
A few senior Blackcaps have enjoyed previous tours of Sri Lanka. Tom Latham has more runs in less Tests than Kane Williamson in Sri Lanka. Tim Southee averages 15.647 in Sri Lanka and that's the lowest of the 11 nations he's played in. Ajaz Patel also has lovely mahi in Sri Lanka from 2019 which gives him a bowling average of 27.6 outside of Aotearoa.
Blackcaps in Sri Lanka
Tom Latham: 229 runs @ 76.3avg/54.5sr, 1 x 100
Kane Williamson: 187 runs @ 26.7avg/42.5sr, 1 x 100
Tim Southee: 116 runs @ 23.2avg/64.4sr | 19w @ 15.4avg/2.4rpo
Mitchell Santner: 25 runs @ 12.5avg/32.4sr | 24ov @ 2.8rpo
Ajaz Patel: 14 runs @ 7avg/58sr | 9w @ 26.8avg/2.8rpo
The pressure of WTC cricket means that New Zealand can't afford a sleepy start as a team, nor can individuals afford to not score runs or take wickets at the moment. Here are the WTC stats for Blackcaps in this cycle...
Batting
Kane Williamson: 619 runs @ 56.2avg/50.6sr, 4 x 100, 1 x 50
Rachin Ravindra: 446 runs @ 55.7avg/55.2sr, 1 x 100, 2 x 50
Glenn Phillips: 314 runs @ 34.8avg/81.5sr, 2 x 50
Daryl Mitchell: 292 runs @ 32.4avg/47.1sr, 2 x 50
Tom Latham: 268 runs @ 22.3avg/43.2sr 1 x 50
Matt Henry: 138 runs@ 23avg/110.4sr
Will Young: 135 runs @ 27avg/36.3sr
Tim Southee: 122 runs @ 13.5avg/79.7sr
Tom Blundell: 98 runs @ 9.8avg/60.1sr
Devon Conway: 94 runs @ 11.7avg/35.8sr
Mitchell Santner: 38 runs @ 19avg/69sr
Bowling
Matt Henry: 23w @ 16.9avg/2.8rpo
Glenn Phillips: 17w @ 17.4avg/2.9rpo
Ajaz Patel: 14w @ 23.9avg/3.5rpo
Mitchell Santner: 12w @ 17.4avg/2.4rpo
Will O'Rourke: 11w @ 17.3avg/2.8rpo
Tim Southee: 10w @ 52.9avg/3.1rpo
Rachin Ravindra: 7w @ 20.4avg/2.4rpo
Ben Sears: 5w @ 32.2avg/4.8rpo
All Blackcaps deep dives this year have included notes about batting slumps for Devon Conway and Tom Blundell. Conway's slump is the most notable because it stretches across formats, but it has been compounded by a dip in production from Latham who went from averaging 45+ in three consecutive years (2017-19) to below 40 in four of his last five years.
Latham is in the midst of his second year in a row averaging below 35. That is balanced by Latham averaging 41.9 in Asia which includes slick mahi in Sri Lanka, excellence in Pakistan (93.6avg) and solid stuff in India (35.7avg) as well as UAE (34.6avg). In Aotearoa, Latham has feasted on Sri Lanka's bowlers with 67.5avg and the need for gritty Test batting starts with Latham who averages 45.5 in Test wins and 24.9 in losses.
This flips for Henry who is the best Blackcaps Test bowler right now. Henry averaged 30+ in four of his five years of Test bowling and now he is in his fourth consecutive year averaging below 30, with his 16.9avg this year the first year of his career below 20avg. In typical kiwi seaming styles though, Henry's Test bowling average of 26 in Aotearoa blows out to 47.7 for Tests overseas and 47.6 in Asia.
Blackcaps will probably deploy two seamers and a bunch of spinners. In the brief window of commentator chat on the first morning of the Afghanistan, Daryl Mitchell was mentioned as an all-rounder who could offer overs of seam bowling. Given that Blackcaps can roll out four spinners in their 1st 11 with a likely combo of Patel/Santner/Phillips/Ravindra as well as two seamers, that's six decent bowling options before getting to Mitchell.
Once arriving at Mitchell as a bowling option, consider that he has a Test bowling record of 116avg/3rpo and he bowled 5ov @ 3.8rpo last summer. Mitchell only got 5ov in kiwi conditions last summer and he's rolled through 75ov in Aotearoa with 2w @ 128.5avg/3.4rpo over his Test career. Mitchell has been economical in overseas Tests though, conceding less than 2.10rpo in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, which may see him sporadically appear for an over or two.
Wider Blackcaps themes still apply for the Sri Lankan tour. Blackcaps haven't shown a clear identity, nor have they shown much mana in grinding through difficult phases to win small battles and/or find a positive Test results. There are horrible individual form slumps as well, but these pesky wrinkles are balanced by younger lads playing at a high level and all kiwi cricket fans should be open to the possibility that the emerging kiwi crickets are better than those bowing out.
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