New Zealand vs Sri Lanka First Debrief
There are two storylines that make things a wee bit more complicated than just another disappointing loss for the Blackcaps after their loss in the first Test against Sri Lanka. The first taps into that disappointment as New Zealand has a softness to their batting line up that doesn't resemble the kiwi identity we came to love and while this is keeping a lid on how good Blackcaps can be in Test cricket, it is balanced by the delight of seeing younger lads shine in tricky conditions.
New Zealand is still lingering in the upper half of the World Test Championship ladder but Sri Lanka leaped ahead of the Blackcaps with their win. This loss also fits into a trend of the Blackcaps losing a first Test before bouncing back with a win, which has happened in the two previous tours of Sri Lanka. In 2012 there was a hefty 10-wicket loss followed by a a 167-run win, then in 2019 the kiwis went down by 6 wickets and bounced back to win by an innings and 65 runs.
The Blackcaps also lost the first Test of their Bangladesh tour last year by 150 runs and then won the second game by 4 wickets. Before that, England rolled over the kiwis by 267 runs at Bay Oval and then the Blackcaps grabbed an epic 1-run win at the Basin Reserve. Another example is the loss to Bangladesh at Bay Oval early in 2022 where Aotearoa lost by 8 wickets and then won the second Test at Hagley Oval by an innings and 117 runs.
Of course, NZ has suffered heavy defeats in consecutive Tests during this period as well. They were swept 0-3 in England during the 2022 tour and then the Blackcaps lost both Tests to Australia last summer, which means we are in the midst of three consecutive losses for Blackcaps in Test cricket (which is kinda disgusting after the T20 World Cup).
Standards have slipped. This features minor notes about a drop in fielding excellence and more loose deliveries with the ball, but is most concerning with the bat. Unfortunately, Devon Conway is the biggest issue for Aotearoa and there is a sneaky connection between disappointing T20 World Cup/WTC mahi and Conway's drop in production across both formats.
Conway is averaging 11 in 10 WTC innings and his strike-rate of 35 is the lowest of the 13 Blackcaps batters who have scored 40+ runs in the WTC. Tim Southee and Matt Henry have more runs than Conway with higher averages/strike-rates. Let that simmer.
At least Tom Blundell has more runs than Southee and Henry, but he's averaging just 12.7 in 13 WTC innings. Aotearoa has two 1st 11 batters who have played at least five Tests in this WTC cycle averaging below 13 and while both are lovely characters who kiwis should like, they aren't scoring many runs.
In Conway's slot up top, this means that Blackcaps are usually losing an early wicket. Conway and Tom Latham survived 18 overs in the first innings against Sri Lanka to spark up the optimistic spliff, until Conway was dismissed for 17 runs off 59 deliveries. Strike-rates are less relevant in Test cricket but they do offer insight and Conway's 28.8sr in the first innings is aligned with his dipping confidence.
The only other top-seven batter who had a first innings strike-rate below 50 was Blundell, who is also battling for gritty confidence. In his batting slot, he is struggling to stop collapses and/or counter with attacking shots. This is amplified by less runs for Latham and Mitchell, both of whom had 50+ scores in the first innings before trying to show some Blackcaps grit in the second innings.
Mitchell has a Test average of 49.2 which looks excellent on the surface. This drops to 32.4 in the WTC though and his yearly average is moving in the wrong direction...
2021: 58.66avg
2022: 68.3avg
2023: 42.63avg
2024: 31.57avg
Latham's averaging 26.1 in the WTC and his 31.5avg in Tests this year is the lowest of his career (starting in 2014). This is the first phase of Latham's Test career in which he is averaging below 35 for two years in a row. Latham does have scores of 38, 73, 70 and 28 in his last two Tests so maybe he is on the up and up.
Latham and Mitchell aren't in the same category as Conway and Blundell. They are all scoring less runs than they did in previous years though and this changes the outlook of Blackcaps Test batting. One of these lads will need to sizzle in the second Test for Aotearoa to win, whether that is grinding through good bowling to not concede easy wickets or through confident strokes that assert dominance.
The Blackcaps do have Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips and Will O'Rourke peeking through the clouds like spring sunshine. Ravindra had a chance to become a young legend on the final day but he shouldn't have been in such a precarious position and his dismissal wrapped up the Test. Ravindra's 92 runs takes him to a WTC average of 57.7 and that's the highest of all Blackcaps batters.
In the first innings, Ravindra scored 39 runs @ 81sr. We are now in a situation where the 24-year-old was the best Blackcaps batter at the ODI World Cup last year and depending on what's important to you, he could be the best WTC batter for Aotearoa or a smidge behind Williamson. Ravindra didn't take a wicket in the loss to Sri Lanka but he is stil a useful spin option to deploy in the second Test as well.
Blackcaps Test cricket is more fun with Phillips in the mix. In the first bowling effort he took 2w @ 2.8rpo as the most economical kiwi bowler, then hit 49* @ 102sr before not doing as much in the second innings with bat or ball. Phillips could have been better when it mattered most, however he ensured that the Blackcaps were in a highly competitive zone heading into the second half of the Test.
Phillips is third for Blackcaps runs in the WTC and he adds oomph down the order with a strike-rate of 82 across 12 innings, which is especially funky when he's batting with the bowlers ... his bowling friends. Phillips is tied with O'Rourke on 19 wickets in the WTC with a slightly lower average and economy rate than Ajaz Patel.
Patel reinforced his status as the best spinner in kiwi cricket though with another strong performance overseas. Patel snared 8 wickets in this Test and he is still averaging below 30 in Tests (28.5avg) with an average of 27.3 in Asia. Patel has similar WTC mahi as Mitchell Santner but Santner was underwhelming with bat and ball in this Test...
World Test Championship
Ajaz Patel: 22w @ 22avg/3.3rpo
Mitchell Santner: 13w @ 24.9avg/2.7rpo
vs Sri Lanka
Ajaz Patel: 8w @ 18.7avg/3rpo
Mitchell Santner: 1w @ 115avg/3.4rpo
For anyone who doesn't know about our newsletter, O'Rourke is responsible for two different newsletters with the title 'Smashing Hands'. O'Rourke smashed Aussie hands at the Basin Reserve and smashed Sri Lankan hands in Galle, which ain't that common considering how Aussie batters love bouncey bowlers and Sri Lanka's batters were in their home conditions.
O'Rourke now has 19w @ 15.5avg/2.8rpo in his three Tests. He hovered around 140km/h once again, popping over that mark a few times but usually in the 137-139km/h range. O'Rourke isn't just a tall lad getting more bounce as he swings the ball into righties/away from lefties and slick seam presentation also increases the chances of seam movement; O'Rourke can angle deliveries into a right-hander and nip it away off the deck.
Aotearoa doesn't have one freaky seamer as Kyle Jamieson is also super tall and he is usually hooping the ball just like O'Rourke. Here is a comparison of their longform careers...
(Test | First-Class)
Will O'Rourke: 19w @ 15.5avg/2.8rpo | 69w @ 24.5avg/3rpo
Kyle Jamieson: 80w @ 19.7avg/2.6rpo | 181w @ 22.2avg/2.8rpo
There is no shortage of freaky seamers on the rise in Aotearoa, as well as more stereotypical kiwi seamers offering fabulous mahi like Nathan Smith but that's a story for the domestic cricket summer. Jamieson's currently out injured and as much as Blackcaps need O'Rourke, it's probably unwise to wear him down through another Test in Sri Lanka and then more Tests in India.
O'Rourke will need a rest at some point and Blackcaps have the hostile Ben Sears waiting for another crack at Test cricket. Skipper Southee is battling through tough conditions and it's highly likely that he is replaced by Matt Henry, offering the chance that the seam attack from the first Test is swapped out for Henry and Sears. To finish, here's how Southee's stats as captain and when he's not captain...
Skipper Southee: 37.67avg/2.8rpo
Not skipper Southee: 28.9avg/3rpo
Enjoy our cricket coverage? Join the Niche Cache Patreon whanau to support our kiwi sports content straight up, get a karma boost and find extra podcasts. You can also Buy Me A Coffee to show your support.
Every Monday and Friday we fire off an email newsletter with bonus content. Sign up here!
Peace and love.