Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Halves Depth + Watch For Bully
Bully bully bully, can't you see? Sometimes your runs just hypnotize me.
Before spinning them yarns about the Warriors intriguing little test over in Canberra, we've got this ongoing situation to touch on regarding the Warriors halves. Earlier in the week I laid down a coping mechanism and throughout the uncertainty surrounding not just Kieran Foran and Shaun Johnson, but also Ata Hingano and Tuimoala Lolohea, you would be wise to enjoy what we have right now; as long as Johnson, Foran, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Issac Luke, Simon Mannering, Jacob Lillyman, Bodene Thompson, David Fusitua and Solomone Kata are in the same team, that NRL Premiership window is open.
It's even more important to enjoy what we have now as we also don't know where Lillyman is going to be playing next season. Lillyman is currently on fire and he is playing at a legit Origin level, he's leading the Warriors in run-metres thanks to Tuivasa-Sheck missing a game, but Lillyman is still averaging 9.85m/per-carry while also playing big minutes, averaging 47.33mins/per-game. Lillyman isn't just playing like he's desperate to play Origin again, or that he's desperate to show that there's another decent contract in him at 33-years-old, he is playing as though he is the leader of this forward pack - as he should.
Point being that Lillyman might rise for this season and then move on to another club, so just enjoy what we have right now.
While we've got no idea what Foran will do, I am reasonably confident that Johnson will re-sign. If Johnson and Foran are such good homies, then there's every chance that they will want to play together and build on any success they have together at the Warriors. Need I remind y'all once again not to get caught up in the daily rumour cycle - yesterday I read how Melbourne had gone cold on Foran, so ya know - but there's major interest in how the respective and combined futures of Foran and Johnson will impact Hingano and Lolohea.
If Foran and Johnson stay, there's simply no space for Hingano or Lolohea as they are - or will be - too good for reserve grade. The Warriors have enough depth to cover Foran and Johnson with Mason Lino capable of being a solid back up half, while Sam Cook, Erin Clark and even Chanel Harris-Tavita could step up in the coming years. With Foran and Johnson as a starting combo, the Warriors wouldn't be able to offer Hingano and Lolohea competitive money or consistent game time and their resources would be better used in supporting cheaper depth players.
If Foran goes, then it opens the door for Hingano or Lolohea and that's a decision the Warriors will need to make. Other NRL clubs have kept close tabs on these two in the past 12 months and while there's a hectic market for halves right now, Hingano and Lolohea would be sought after as they would be two of the cheapest options around. Don't be surprised if a club signs Hingano or Lolohea and it turns out to be a wise piece of business as they didn't have to break the bank to bring in a decent half with plenty of upside.
Many would view this complicated situation as a problem for the Warriors and that's the general vibe from silly local media and Australian media. Flip the script though and ponder that the Warriors have at least five possible NRL halves, at least five different avenues they can go down and that leaves them well equipped to deal with uncertainty around Foran and then Johnson.
The Warriors won't have much of a say in Foran's choice - good vibes and success could sway Foran - however they have options to chose from moving forward. In the past there were no options and while the depth options might not be Kieran Foran, the Warriors are in a position to pick a bloke to partner Johnson and stick with him.
Remember that Johnson has rarely had a consistent halves partner and any hate that goes Johnson's way tends to overlook that lack of an established combination. The key thing in all of this is picking and sticking with a halves combination.
Right, Canberra. The Raiders join our Warriors at 3-3 and that alone makes this an interesting contest, throw in how the Warriors are coming off home wins against the Titans and Eels who are are both in the bottom-four (with the Tigers and Knights) and we've got a gauge-game; this game will help us gauge where the Warriors are at.
The Raiders are 2nd in the NRL for points which will offer a test for the Warriors defence, especially on the edges. Of course there's Elliott Whitehead, Joey Leilua and Jordan Rapana coming down the Warriors' left edge but there's also Josh Papalii, Jarrod Croker and the impressive youngster Nick Cotric coming down the right.
I've enjoyed watching the Warriors defend through the middle over the past few weeks and they are improving with their wrestle, covering inside holes and their line-speed. The Raiders have big bodies through the middle, however their potent attack comes out wide and as Stephen Kearney is a defence-first coach, how the Warriors go about defending their edges will be a funky level-up from the last few games.
It goes without saying that the forwards will face a stiff challenge against the likes of Junior Paulo, Shannon Boyd, Joseph Tapine, Papalii and Whitehead. And everyone will be tuning in to the Foran/Johnson show (Splash Cuzzies!?), when you're watching this with your homies though, I'd suggest you focus on Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck.
Luke leads the NRL in dummy-half runs and he averages 10.51m/per-carry which is precisely what Luke was signed to do. Against the big Raiders forward pack, Luke will be presented with many opportunities to scoot out of dummy half and just as he did for Foran's game-winning try last week, Luke will spot a tired marker or a funky defensive match up and pounce.
This will likely come after a Tuivasa-Sheck run where he breaks Paulo or Boyd's ankles and pokes a hole around the ruck, or Tuivasa-Sheck will benefit from Luke's quick play-the-ball. Six Raiders have missed more than 10 tackles this season and four of them (Boyd, Soliola, Clay Priest and Tapine) are middle forwards and all four of them have been named for this game.
Speed, the Warriors are all about speed around the ruck and while many would think that Canberra are massive favourites here, I reckon their weaknesses suit a major strength for the Warriors. Any time Luke scoots or Tuivasa-Sheck receives a pass close to the ruck, pay attention.
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