Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Live And Learn
Gauge-game. We had seen the Warriors beat up two battlin' NRL teams at home and an away trip to Canberra came at the perfect time; what are our Warriors actually about?
The Raiders are a strong team but I certainly don't think they are among the NRL's top-tier. They have weapons and a culture that enables them to churn through impressive victories, yet the ease at which the Warriors rolled down the field and - for most of the game - limited the Raiders potency on attack will quickly be packaged into 'film' for NRL coaches like Craig Bellamy, Shane Flanagan, Wayne Bennett, Paul Green and heck, even Paul McGregor.
Penalties and errors gifted the ball back to Canberra when the game was in the balance during the second half, with the Raiders flipping the possession stat from the first half to finish with 54 percent of the footy. We heard all about how the Warriors had won their past two games with completion rates over 80 percent, so it's no surprise that they lost this game completing at 67 percent. Yet when pondering Joey Leilua's - whom I don't think is quite as good as that Blocker geezer thinks - two tries, it's not as though Ken Maumalo wanted to actually tackle Leilua on either occasion.
And of course Maumalo dropped that floating bomb from Blake Austin that led to the second Leilua try.
This isn't to pick on Maumalo, just reason not to get too down on this loss. Of course the gulf in possession will piss Stephen Kearney off, however the result went in favour of Canberra mainly thanks to a few bad moments, even a few weird ref calls.
Even a few weird Coach Kearney calls; if Kearney was all-in on desperately winning this game, I doubt he would have pulled Issac Luke off. Perhaps Kearney was taking my theory of speed around the ruck to a nek level with Nathaniel Roache coming on, however Luke didn't come back into the game as I thought he might. Maybe Kearney felt all giddy to give Roache game time because younger bro Paul is now with the Junior Raiders - who knows?
Canberra won this game because as a group, they know what they are about and that's the gauge in all of this. Forget the hype, this Warriors team is seven games into their new vibe with Kearney at the helm, with Foran in the halves, with James Gavet playing big minutes, with David Fusitua playing in the same position consistently. So much about this Warriors team is fresh, new and in development.
You see a try-saver, I see the seed of a very funk attacking combination. Go to Foran with Charlie Gubb pushing up in support, but Gubb's a decoy for an inside ball to Johnson and then note how late Tuivasa-Sheck cuts back inside Johnson.
With Foran and Johnson on the left, Canberra must send their attention that way and then because Tuivasa-Sheck delays his cut, Canberra think the ball is off to the right; creative, funky and just a sign of what is to come.
Ricky Stuart has built a culture in Canberra that took a few years and Kearney is seven games in. The Warriors are definitely in 'win now' mode but it's still gonna take much of this season to get to a point where they are peaking in all aspects; the starting 13 for the Raiders were all with Canberra last season and winger Nick Cotric is the only new face in that group having graduated from the Juniors to NRL.
So when the game is in the balance, with two relatively evenly matched teams, instincts take over. Canberra have built that up over time with repetition and our Warriors are still learning that, so all good. Canberra won this game via their defence, while our Warriors just aren't good enough right now to turn over that much ball and defend their mistakes.
In that first half when the Warriors were dominating possession, it was the kicking game that caught my eye. Foran has added a short-side kicking game that no Warriors half in the last five years has been able to do and whether it was landing the ball a metre out from the try-line to start a big defensive set, or making that kick contestable - a try assist for Ryan Hoffman - Foran does kicking things that Johnson can't.
Johnson's long kicking game was pretty good and in that opening stanza, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck dribbled a kick into the in-goal and Issac Luke scooted out of dummy half to do the same. We didn't see this variety in the second half which was a bummer as this was a glimpse into the options that are available to the Warriors with this spine. Foran and Johnson are slick kickers, Luke's kicking game is highly underrated and Tuivasa-Sheck showed that he was able to assess a situation and calmly execute.
Also interesting was the use of Jacob Lillyman vs Junior Paulo, either team's top-dawg prop. Possession skews the number of carries and this is evident in a comparison between James Gavet (45mins) and Shannon Boyd (47mins), with Gavet taking 8 carries for 90m while Boyd rolled through 14 carries for 128m. Lillyman (59mins) and Paulo (61mins) had similar game time, however Lillyman only had 10 carries while Paulo had 22 carries. Factor in the overall possession and that's still a hefty difference, it's even more confusing when you consider Lillyman's efficiency.
Lillyman averaged 9.8m/per-carry and Paulo averaged 8.40m/per-carry; so why not give Lillyman at least 15 carries in 60 minutes?
All that Blocker geezer was saying during this game was how amazing the Raiders forward pack is and when you scratch the surface of this game, you'd be left thinking about how the Raiders over-ran the Warriors. Canberra ran for a lot more metres than the Warriors thanks to that possession advantage, yet they averaged 9.06m/per-carry compared to the Warriors' 9.38m/per-carry.
Just as the Warriors have four legit kickers of the footy, they enjoyed solid running contributions across the team in running the footy.
If you load up on Foran's kicking game, Johnson can kick. If you load up on them, Tuivasa-Sheck can kick two passes wide of the ruck, or Luke can execute a range of kicks out of dummy half.
If you make it your mission to nullify Gavet, Lillyman and Mannering, well David Fusitua, Solomone Kata, Ken Maumalo and Mr 200m himself (Tuivasa-Sheck had 18 carries for 200m) can get the Warriors down the field. Or Ryan Hoffman can steam on to the footy on the edge, or Luke can make an easy 10m around the ruck.
That's the blueprint folks. Right now we have those kicking options and a team that can roll down field fairly easily. What this team lack are the instincts, trust and execution that come with repetition, especially when the game is in the balance.
This result could ruin your Easter weekend if you're silly. Or you could note it down as a learning curve, an opportunity to take stock and understand that this Warriors team is making small steps towards their best footy. Wins over weaker opposition showed us that the Warriors can beat teams they need to beat to make the top-eight, losses like this give the Warriors the information they need to ensure that when they make the top-eight, they are as good as they can be.
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