New Zealand Warriors Start To Lay Foundations & Roosters Aren't Scared
New Zealand Warriors bounced back with a win vs Sea Eagles at Mt Smart and shuffle into another Friday night home game against Roosters. Regardless of how Roosters have had a similar start to the season as NZW, they have won all three games against NZW during the two Andys era with a combined points tally of 30-72.
In Sydney: 12-20
Mt Smart: 0-14
In Sydney: 18-38
This includes a gritty 0-14 win to Roosters during a rainy encounter at Mt Smart in 2023. NZW lost their last two games at Mt Smart last year as part of their 6-5 home record and started this season with a win at home. As Sea Eagles fell into their regular awesome/mediocre flow and Roosters have a dominant record against NZW recently, this game will he a funky test of Mt Smart's mana for NZW in 2025.
We are still in a learning phase about NZW footy and two games of two different extremes don’t offer many insights. The most notable observation is that NZW showed that they do have some spirit this season, their wairua was glowing at Mt Smart. Along with the best completion rate in the NRL so far, these factors combine for solid foundations to build upon moving forward.
NZ Warriors Stat Profile (per game)
Set Completion: 1st - 84.1%
Supports: 8th
Line Engaged: 12th
Decoys: 1st
Post Contact Metres: 5th
Tackle Breaks: 12th
Linebreaks: 14th
Run Metres: 13th
Kick Return Metres: 15th
Dummy Half Runs: 3rd
Offloads: 12th
Missed Tackles: 12th
Penalties Conceded: 14th
Errors: 15th
NZW still have the most decoy runners in the NRL and this is balanced by being 12th for line engagements. With more energy and intensity vs Sea Eagles, NZW were able to gather momentum and play far more direct. This countered the 'shape to sidelines' that plagued their attack vs Raiders but lots of decoys and fewer line engagements is stil an intriguing pocket to track, especially against good defences.
Folks should celebrate that NZW are among the best teams for fewest penalties conceded and their tackling mahi is in the upper echelon as well. Add in decent post contact metres and a notable presence in the top-three for dummy half runs as these foundations of NZW footy start to take shape.
Wayde Egan isn't responsible for all dummy half running but he almost hit the average of 10 DHR/game by himself vs Sea Eagles with 9 DHR - 91m. Add in 6 DHR - 62m vs Raiders and Egan has churned out 15 DHR - 153m @ 10.2m/run this season. Egan is averaging 103m/game in general and even with the small sample size, this is a significant jump up from his previous best of 51m/game in 2023.
No player has had more than five dummy half runs in the two games vs Roosters this season and the only bloke with five was Mitch Kenny last round. Panthers had no other dummy half runners in that loss vs Roosters. Egan isn't fast or explosive but his threat around dummy half is all about holding defenders still with his slow-mo scoots. They either lead to metres around the ruck or dragging defenders in to open up space out wide.
Here's how the halves have shared their kicking mahi so far this season with last season's mahi in brackets...
Luke Metcalf: 20 kicks - 341.3 kicking metres per game (45.5)
Chanel Harris-Tavita: 18 kicks - 270.7 kicking metres per game (173.6)
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They also share touches evenly as Metcalf has 97 receipts this season and Harris-Tavita has 82. One notable difference between the two games this season is Harris-Tavita flipping from 3.7 passes per run against Raiders to 1.7 passes per run against Sea Eagles. That fits nicely alongside the halves having three dummy passes vs Raiders and 13 vs Sea Eagles, all of which highlights a more direct style of footy.
Erin Clark pounced on his opportunity to start, adding speed and similar passing skill to Dylan Walker. Clark had the most passes of NZW forwards vs Sea Eagles and has the most runs of NZW forwards this season, while averaging 45.5mins per game. This is a notable jump up from 38.8mins/game last year with Titans and Clark has also gone from 99m/game last year to 140m/game this year.
Expect to see Demitric Vaimauga and Leka Halasima enter the game in the second half for 15-20mins as this has been the general recipe in the two games this season. With the best completion rate in the NRL, NZW seem to embrace the grind for the first half of the game with James Fisher-Harris and Clark playing 31mins before being subbed off. Mitchell Barnett went for 52mins straight before he came off the field and along with the two edge forwards playing the first 60mins at least, these experience forwards are responsible for wearing the opposition down.
Then Vaimauga and Halasima enter the game. Vaimauga usually rolls through the middle and Halasima on the edge in Marata Niukore's spot, providing energy and vigour. The game was already lost when this happened vs Raiders which was frustrating but the plan was clear against Sea Eagles and it worked well as NZW went from 24-16 at the Vaimauga/Halasima injection phase to a 36-16 win.
NZW have had two wins in NSW Cup to start the season and host Roosters before the NRL game. Samuel Healey isn't named at hooker with Freddy Lussick taking the starting spot and Makaia Tafua coming on to the bench after he played the first two games of Jersey Flegg Cup. Coming out of Christchurch, Tafua played 18 games of NSW Cup last season and was starting hooker in their finals loss last season.
As an example of how NZW have maintained three winning seasons in NSW Cup with a high turnover of players, here are their three spines for the last game of each season...
2023: Setu Tu, Ben Farr, Ronald Volkman, Paul Roache
2024: Taine Tuaupiki, Luke Hanson, Paul Roache, Makaia Taufa
2025: Geronimo Doyle, Te Maire Martin, Tanah Boyd, Samuel Healey
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava also drops down from 18th-lad duties with the NRL team to play edge forward with Kayliss Fatialofa moving from starting edge forward to the bench. Here are the best NZW youngsters who are yet to play NRL based on their involvements this season...
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (Otahuhu)
Tanner Stowers-Smith (Halswell)
Kayliss Fatialofa (Otara)
Toby Crosby (Greytown)
Luke Hanson (Penrith)
Makaia Tafua (Linwood)
Harry Durbin (Pikiao)
NZW have had two losses in U21s, which looks horrible with the U19 SG Ball Cup team going 0-6 to start the season. One can either get stuck in the mud here or focus on NSW Cup where NZW have been a top-four team in three consecutive seasons with lots of local youngsters playing at the reserve grade level. These teams produce good players who contribute to a winning NSW Cup team so chill on the results at a junior level.
Jett Cleary returns to the halves after missing the game last week. Jason Salalilo is another young forward on the rise, behind Durbn and Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea. The Papanui junior from Christchurch has quickly progressed through the NZW pipeline and has demanded selection as a starting middle forward.
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Peace and love.