New Zealand Warriors Winning Footy Observations Early In The 2025 NRL Season
Mt Smart was rocking once again with New Zealand Warriors grabbing their second Friday night win in a row to start the 2025 NRL season. In the wins over Manly Sea Eagles and Sydney Roosters, NZW have battled set for set with their opposition before pulling away late in the game to seal wins. Undercover heroes are shining, new recruits have flourished in returning to Aotearoa, youngsters are playing their part in winning footy and there are a few elements of their playing profile that form encouraging foundations.
Let's start with those foundations...
Prior to this round of footy, NZW had the best completion rate in the NRL ... for the second season in a row. This was listed in our newsletter on Thursday so sign up for that because there are lots of NZW nuggets offered in every dispatch. NZW were sixth with a completion rate of 79% in 2024 and then they were first in 2024 with 82%, followed by 84.1% in the top spot before the round started.
NZW have been had completion rates of 91% and 86% in these two wins at Mt Smart. In both games their opposition had completion rates below 75% and this is aligned with NZW playing the long game. Up 24-16 heading at the 60min mark just after Sea Eagles scored a try, NZW went on two score two tries and win that game 36-16. NZW were down 4-6 at the 60min mark vs Roosters and then scored two tries to win 14-6.
Completion rate is a massive factor, especially when it's far better than the opposition playing at Mt Smart. There other wrinkles to explore here like the bench impact but along with the completion rate, NZW have a pattern of delightful discipline which has seen them concede five or less penalties in all three games this season.
NZW were seventh on 5.6 penalties conceded in 2023, then 13th with 5.1 penalties conceded last season. They were ranked 14th (4.5) ahead of this round and this makes NZW one of the most disciplined teams in the NRL. Combined few penalties conceded with fabulous completion rates for a style of footy that bucks up against all (racial) stereotypes of how NZW operate.
An additional thingy below is average play the ball speed. NZW have had a quicker play the ball speed in all three games, although the margins are teeny weeny and not quite as important as the other stats. It does highlight some level of ruck control with and without the footy...
vs Raiders
Average play the ball speed: 3.5s (vs 3.7s)
Completion rate: 75%
Penalties conceded: 2 (4)
vs Sea Eagles
Average play the ball speed: 3.6s (3.9s)
Completion rate: 91%
Penalties conceded: 4 (5)
vs Roosters
Average play the ball speed: 3.71s (3.73s)
Completion rate: 86%
Penalties conceded: 5 (7)
As has been laid out many times before when covering Aotearoa Kiwis and then what to expect with the arrival of James Fisher-Harris at Mt Smart, his value can't be measured as it's all mana. Others get the 'best prop in the NRL' tags as Fisher-Harris played his role in four consecutive NRL championships and Hokianga's finest doesn't churn out monster stats, or destructive highlights that command headlines.
Fisher-Harris does control the ruck though. He loves to tackle and is a fantastic wrestler which ensures strong contract, folding the runner up and squeezing them to slow the ruck speed down. There aren't any stats for that and it's something that eager fans should watch out for, however there is a notable difference in Fisher-Harris' mahi for NZW this season compared to his last season at Panthers...
2024: 46.6mins | 26.8 tackles | 127.2m
2025: 50.7mins | 37.7 tackles | 124.3m
Slightly more minutes and many more tackles. That helps NZW win the physicality battle through the middle and another new recruit in Erin Clark has added immense oomph in his return to NZW....
2024: 38.8mins | 22.2 tackles | 99.3m
2025: 45mins | 24.7 tackles | 149.3m
Six more minutes shouldn't add 50m to Clark's mahi per game but it does. Fisher-Harris is doing more tackling and Clark is doing more running; both are doing more of what they excel at.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Wayde Egan provide the most insight into NZW footy though. When these two are playing at or near their best, it sets everything else up. Nicoll-Klokstad mopped up everything out the back in a classy defensive display vs Roosters, while also playing his role on the right edge shapes with timely passes to Ali Leiataua for both his tries.
The key thing for Nicoll-Klokstad though is his running mahi...
vs Raiders: 14 runs - 89m @ 6.3m/run
vs Sea Eagles: 20 runs - 171m @ 8.5m/run
vs Roosters: 30 runs - 316m @ 10.5m/run
Wayde Egan has played 80mins, made 40+ tackles and averaged 10m per dummy half run in all three games this season. Nicoll-Klokstad averaging 10m/run on 30 runs is a crazy stat but Egan's 80min/40+ tackles/10m per DHR is bonkers and shows that he is cooking as a top-notch dummy half...
vs Raiders: 6 DHR - 62m @ 10.3m/run | 51 tackles @ 92.7%
vs Sea Eagles: 9 DHR - 91m @ 10.1m/run | 41 tackles @ 95.3%
vs Roosters: 11 DHR - 110m @ 10m/run | 48 tackles @ 90.5%
This pocket was initially about the youngsters but it had to be adjusted to the emerging players to include Taine Tuaupiki. Tuaupiki is 25-years-old and has played a similar number of games as the younger lads in Leiataua, Demitric Vaimauga and Leka Halasima with all these emerging lads settling into their roles nicely.
Tuaupiki has adjusted to his role on the wing having been the dominant fullback for NZW in NSW Cup. He shouldn't run it straight like Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Tuaupiki instead bounces around, hunting tired defenders. This has added zip to NZW running which compliments the footwork/power of Nicoll-Klokstad or Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, while the younger lads are all rockets.
Leiataua is locked in at centre and has flashed his freaky power consistently at the NRL level. Vaimauga had a few mishaps after being injected earlier than usual vs Roosters but he adds to what the other middle forwards do, while Halasima continues to show the ability that saw him debut in NSW Cup as a 17-year-old (!!). Whether it's Tuaupiki taking his wing opportunity or Halasima adding energy late in a game, these players are fitting into their 2025 roles nicely.
All of the emerging lads came from a winning NSW Cup team where they were consistently awesome. They weren't the reason the NSW Cup was winning though because the NSW Cup team has kept winning without them. On Friday night they defeated Roosters 46-12 and are 3-0 to start this season, without any minutes from the four emerging lads listed above.
The 2025 NSW Cup team is flush with guys who could easily be playing NRL. This gives NZW an exciting level of competitive depth and there is also the thread of a wide variety of youngsters contributing to this winning reserve grade outfit. Lads like Tanner Stowers-Smith, Kayliss Fatialofa and Toby Crosby have all impressed in consistent game time, while Makaia Tafua is an exciting dummy half pushing up behind Samuel Healey (NZW won 46-12 without Healey).
Of course, there are Jacob Laban and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava as well. These two have both had 18th-man duties for the NRL team this season and the way they overlap, as well as who has been 18th-man for the NSW Cup team, provides an insight into NZW development.
Ieremia-Toeava was 18th-man for the first two NRL games which gave him experience of the NRL match day. Meanwhile Laban churned out 80mins in NSW Cup having already played a bit of NRL footy and he then swapped with Ierema-Toeava for the Roosters game. The versatility shown vs Roosters with Adam Pompey moving to wing, Kurt Capewell to centre and Mitch Barnett to edge forward gives NZW the luxury of using the 18th-man job as a bridge between NSW Cup and NRL.
This is reinforced by three different lads in the 18th-man role for NSW Cup: Caleb Laiman, Harry Durbin and Jason Salalilo. NZW don't throw younger players into higher levels under the two Andys, there is slow and steady development that increases sustainability as they progress.
For anyone who cares about dummy passing...
Dummy Passes
vs Raiders: 12 (16)
Wayde Egan: 5 | Erin Clark: 3
vs Sea Eagles: 36 (15)
Wayde Egan: 8 | Chanel Harris-Tavita: 7 | Luke Metcalf: 6 | Erin Clark: 4
vs Roosters: 45 (27)
Wayde Egan: 12 | Dylan Walker: 10 | Harris-Tavita/Metcalf/Ali Leiataua: 4
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Peace and love.