State Of Origin Uno; A Preview
There's been a few issues in Queensland's camp with key men Greg Inglis and Billy Slater under slight injury/illness clouds, but it looks like everything will be okay. New South Wales look good to go with no real personnel dramas, so that means it's time to get the show underway.
Last year we saw two very gritty, gutsy and grimey Origin encounters as NSW lifted the shield. The third game appeared to be largely a blip, a non-event but the way QLD went about that game should be an early warning sign of their intentions this year. Game one will go down in Sydney and QLD must surely be looking at this game desperate for a win. That will nip some of the excitement around NSW in the bud and it will also spread confidence through the Maroons.
For NSW, well this is their only home game which also doubles as the series opener. With a game in each state and one in Melbourne, NSW will be eager to get things underway with a win at home. It's safe to say that game one will be of huge importance for both teams.
QLD should start as favourites. Regardless of what happened last year they still have the game's best players and their core group still remains intact. We've enjoyed a purple patch of form from Jonathan Thurston so far this season and he will clearly be hugely influential, but we must remember that Cooper Cronk bloke. Remember how he broke his arm last year? Yeah, wasn't that a spanner in the works?
It's not hard to draw a link between QLD's inability to break down NSW's defence in the first two games last year and the loss of Cronk. The reason Thurston can play with so much freedom down their left flank, linking with Greg Inglis and Darius Boyd, is because Cronk is always ready to go in the middle of the field. He's always demanding the attention of NSW's defence, which when you try to split that between both Cronk and Thurston, it's a much harder task.
There was a rather disjointed look to QLD in 2014 thanks to the loss of Cronk and he's hugely important to how QLD attack. Cronk's connection with Sam Thaiday will be crucial as Thaiday looks much better out on the edge with a bit more room to get the legs pumping as he runs whatever play QLD have drawn up.
Instincts are a big part of QLD's success and we've got to revert back to the Storm players and how they are able to pop up at the right time and place without much thought. While Cameron Smith is important, it's more so Cronk and Slater as Slater lurks around out the back. Having Cronk steering the ship makes life so much easier for Slater and with the sort of form that Slater is in, I'm excited to see how QLD get him involved.
Origin always offers us a chance to see Inglis play in the centres, which many may see as a negative thanks to how great he's been at fullback, but I love it. There's always a slightly new way as to how QLD get the most out of Inglis whether he's sweeping over to the other side of the field or using his fullback skills down the short side. Last year Darius Boyd scored a try where the second rower ran the decoy and Inglis, playing at centre received the ball out the back which created a bit of space for Boyd to score. Inglis has shown that he's got it all as he can pass, he's a beast running the footy and he makes the right decisions. Whether we see the best of him at centre will be up to how creative QLD have been at training.
It also depends on Beau Scott. I believe Inglis will line up against Josh Morris, but Scott has done a great job against Inglis in Origin for a number of years now and he'll be tasked with keeping Inglis quiet.
We could also see Justin Hodges given a bit more freedom. For the Broncos Hodges has pretty much done everything this season and I wouldn't be surprised if QLD have noted that and will make the most of his ball playing and running game.
The big issue for QLD is their forward pack. Look at NSW's pack, then look at QLD's and tell me who is going to punch holes in the NSW defence? Hmm, there aren't too many to pick from are there? Matt Scott and Corey Parker do love an offload though and the overall workhorse nature of QLD's pack should see them at least hold their own through the middle. They have nigglers, guys who have built careers on doing little things that coaches love to slow down the play the ball and control the rucks speed, which will be crucial. Smith, Thaiday, Parker, Nate Myles, and Aiden Guerra will have a huge task slowing NSW down but they have all faced big forwards before.
That's where the impact off the bench for QLD becomes crucial. Josh McQuire and Jacob Lillyman will understandably offer the muscle which is a step up from last year's smaller forward pack. Matt Gillett is a nifty ball runner and his mobility will help QLD switch angles and run the big NSW forwards around a bit while Michael Morgan will have a similar role.
It's a bit weird, considering how big Laurie Daley has gone in the forwards that Morgan will probably play as a forward. However, if it's an up-tempo game, clear skies and what not, then Morgan will look to come off the bench and offer more speed and footwork through the middle. Throw in his skills as a half and we could see a few interesting plays put on.
NSW's big forward pack is headlined by David Klemmer and Andrew Fifita, not because they're both huge humans but because how mobile they are given their size. We will definitely see them toil up the guts, looking to get quick play the balls and denting QLD's defence but don't be surprised to see Fifita especially, out a bit wider.
Last year we saw NSW have great success running at Thurston, or at least sending many bodies his way testing his decision making. There are a few ways NSW could look to target this again and I would love to see Fifita given a bit more space where he can run at someone like Thurston. The worst result here would be a great tackle by Thurston while Fifita still gets an offload out.
A lot of this came about thanks to Jarryd Hayne and the equal threat he poses as a play maker and a ball runner. Josh Dugan is more of a ball runner which does limit NSW's attacking options as Dugan can't throw the same passes that Hayne did, but Dugan's running game will be exploited to the fullest. Mitchell Pearce and Trent Hodkinson will look to get Dugan the ball with a bit of space and plenty of options around him. Dugan's a beast, but if he's getting the ball without any players to possibly pass to, QLD will load up on him and get a few shoulders into the tackle. If there are options around Dugan, then he's one on one or he's running into small holes where his freakish strength will give him the advantage.
I'm always very weary of Michael Jennings in a blues jersey as he always looks likely. Look for Jennings to get plenty of early ball where he's able to isolate a defender and make life extremely difficult for them.
There's a very workman-like look to NSW's edge forwards with Scott and Ryan Hoffman selected to start while Boyd Cordner might give either of them a break. Scott and Hoffman will thrive playing off two halves who are good runners of the football but are also very slick passers. There are two hole-running edge forwards on either side for NSW and they'll need to be on point to offer variety in NSW's attack.
Who knows how the halves for NSW will go, it's a new combination and while I'm sure they'll be fine, they will be put under huge pressure from QLD. Robbie Farah hasn't quite been in vintage form and now all of a sudden he's skippering NSW in the absence of Paul Gallen and if I were to pick one player for NSW who holds the key, it's Farah.
He's got a left boot first of all which is a nice addition to two right footed halves as he can launch a quick kick from dummy half and put QLD under the pump. You would expect a Origin hooker to be a crisp distributor of the footy, so that goes without saying but Farah's running game will either make or break NSW. I'm placing a big emphasis on it because there's a very real possibility that NSW's forwards make big metres in periods of the game, they could do it all game but there will definitely be a set or two where there just charging down the field.
Farah has to run the ball and get QLD's markers turning, making repeat efforts where they can't slow the play down. It's equally as likely that we'll see NSW's skillful forwards like Aaron Woods, James Tamou and Trent Merrin along with the new bash brothers look to squeeze out plenty of offloads and Farah needs to be there to pounce. A slick game from Farah will give Pearce and Hodkinson so much more time to make their decisions and give them a few extra seconds before a Thaiday or Myles comes to put a shot on.
I've got super high expectations for Woods who has been one of the best three props in the NRL for a season or two. He's perfectly suited to Origin footy as he'll rip in and get under QLD's skin bit the skills of Woods will give NSW a nice bit of variety on attack.
Josh Jackson is effectively filling Paul Gallen's boots at lock and it's a big ask for the young Bulldog. He does however have a very simple role which is centred on effort, he'll be required to take tough hit ups and show up for every tackle through the middle of the field, which is well within his realm of ability.
I said that QLD are favourites and I'm going to roll with the Maroons. Game one will test what the veterans for QLD learned from last year and they have shown in the NRL that they are able to adapt and evolve with the ever-changing speed and style of play. I expect that the likes of Smith, Cronk, Slater, Inglis and Thurston have come up with a vibe within their team that will ensure that they don't get 2015 off to a stinker of a start, but I also reckon they'll showcase just how great they are on the field.
Last year we saw great games, phenomenal games in fact that made you cringe with pain sitting there on the couch. Could this year be better? Definitely, there's more x-factor in each side and with NSW's huge forward pack, QLD's crafty veterans and a game one fixture that is hugely important, I reckon we're going to see one of the best Origin games of all time.